War and Weather.


Feb 17, 2023

In a few days the weather in Ukraine will start to change, the ice will melt and the side roads will soften and turn to mud. It doesn’t seem that Putin will get any small victories to present to his people on the anniversary of his invasion.

The mud season is about to begin and Ukrainian mud is sticky, it clings to everything it touches, tanks have been known to sink and disappear beneath it never to be seen again.

The war in Ukraine hasn’t truly slowed this winter because Russia has continued to send thousands of men to their deaths in a futile attempt to take territory by sheer weight of numbers. They failed. Ukrainian defences have been forthright and intelligent. Withdrawing when it was appropriate and counter attacking when it was important. Bakhmut is a perfect example of how Russia fixated on one town at great expense with nothing to show for their efforts except corpses. It will be even more disastrous for Russia to advance when the weather warms. In the meantime further west, Ukraine has mounted successful attacks in Kherson Oblast destroying a Russian convoy, air defences and drone launch sites.

As the weather begins to change, advances off road will become impossible and the focus will turn to long range artillery and air attacks. Russia will probably continue to attack UA infrastructure and public housing while Ukraine will choose its targets more wisely. It is probably a good time to go back to the Kerch Bridge as repairs come to an end.

Putin’s Special Military Operation has failed. By June the training for Leopard crews will be complete, new supplies will be in place and it will be time for the Ukrainian counter offensive. Will it be Crimea?

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall


  1. “As the weather begins to change, advances off road will become impossible and the focus will turn to long range artillery and air attacks.”

    Which is why ATACMS are essential and vitally urgent.

  2. The pic is from a visit by Chas and Di to SAS HQ in Hereford.
    The bloke on the bottom left looking like Burt Reynolds is Robin.

  3. A post Robin made yesterday about ammo:

    “Ukraine needs ammo!

    This is a crucial time in Ukraine. The Russian system of war is still simple. Weight of numbers and weight of artillery on a broad front. Expenditure of men and ammunition is being pushed to its limits on both sides but it is much higher for Russia who are on the offensive. It has been estimated that Russia is using 30,000 artillery rounds every day while Ukraine is firing 5000.

    Under the present circumstances Putin must hope that Ukraine will run out of ammunition before Russia does and be forced to capitulate. This is probably his only path to any form of victory.

    The western democracies are very aware of this strategy and know that they must immediately increase their military industrial capacity. This is not a decision that can wait. Western reserves and stocks of munitions have already diminished enough to cause concern about what more can be given. The danger now is that national leaders will try to leave others to pay the price while they sit on the side lines and cheer.

    Once again we need to remind everyone that there must be a unified front against Russia. Ukraine needs ammo, and we must all find a way to provide it. Governments of all nations must engage their industrial leaders and find a rapid method of increasing output across the full range of arms production.

    In the meantime we must hope that European nations including the UK have learned (once again) that defence of their borders is their first priority and that expenditure on defence is what protects our peoples and our freedoms. The Ukraine conflict proves yet again that when we get soft and lazy someone else will take advantage of our weakness, – no matter how nice and rich we are.”

    Slava Ukraini!

    Who Dares Shares
    Robin Horsfall

    • The West could take a lot of pressure off of artillery and its hunger for ammo by handing over aircraft and choppers. I just can’t see why this is so hard for the decision makers to comprehend.

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