The date for the occupants to “plateau” and begin a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Army has been announced.
The Russian occupation army is currently in the first stage of an offensive in Ukraine. It will increase day by day, with a climax expected in March. But then, an inevitable decline will follow. Most likely, the enemy will no longer be able to organize an offensive like the one we witness today. The main reason is mobilization. Kremlin head Vladimir Putin will not be able to assemble the same number of “mobilizeв people” as he did during his “partial” mobilization in Russia. There will simply be nothing to build up the forces.
As soon as it happens, the Ukrainian army will launch a counteroffensive operation, which could end with the complete liberation of our country. The enemy’s defenses may suddenly “fall apart,” especially when the AFU deeply penetrates the occupied territories. But one should probably not expect the war to end in the first half of the year. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with obozrevatel.com by colonel of the AFU reserve, military expert Oleh Zhdanov.
– What direction does the current enemy offensive develop? There are quite different opinions. One says that it is almost over; others say that it has not yet begun. A third party says that Putin is preparing a new stage of the offensive.
– The offensive is underway. It is only growing. I believe it is in its first phase. It will increase the number of troops brought into the fight; the effort will increase. Where the enemy gets a serious rebuff; one regroups and redeploys reserves to put more pressure on our defenses, as is happening in Ugledar and Bakhmut.
Today, we are already seeing new offensive directions – along the Oskol River from the Russian border to Kupyansk. For another two weeks, the offensive will build up, and I think it will culminate by March. That will be the maximum they can show to date.
– But we thought the climax should happen closer to February 23rd or February 24th, and you’re talking about March. Is there no date tie-in in this case?
– Yes, the rumor has it that Putin has set a goal to get results earlier, by February 21-22. He needs the results to say something to the federal assembly. And they will ramp up their efforts by that date. They will reach a plateau on February 23-24. They will be at maximum capacity until March.
Then, there will be a decline, but not before the second week of March. After that, it’s going to be up to us to be effective in defeating the enemy. But the enemy will have nothing to build up his forces with.
– Indeed, the next Federal Assembly is approaching. What do you think Putin would like to say apart from the fact that certain successes have been achieved on the battlefield? Can he announce any radical steps?
– No, he can’t. And that’s why he’s pressing his military so hard, demanding at least some kind of victory. Because he has something to say. The fact is that Putin fears the armed people more than the Armed Forces of Ukraine more than defeat on the battlefield. He will not announce a general mobilization. He is afraid to even announce a second wave of mobilization. We have been waiting for this since January 5. But it will not happen. Give weapons to the people, and the next stage, as is traditional in Russia, is “Russian revolt, senseless and merciless”.
He will certainly not declare war. Lose all international contracts and go into deep isolation? Putin cannot afford such a thing. So he will lobby patriotism. He will try to refer to the Second World War. This episode they call the Great Patriotic War. He will say that NATO is threatening us; it will seize everything, if you don’t go to war. You will be slaves of the NATO, and so on.
– You say the enemy is trying to expand its area of activity, looking for new offensive directions. Do you think that the Kyiv direction will be among them?
– No. Forget about Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv. We will mention them when the Russian Federation will accumulate resources in these directions. Today, there are no troops there. There is nothing to attack with. There are several battalions to cover the Russian state border – the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions. But the best they can do is reconnaissance in-force, i.e. an armed provocation on the border. Up to six battalion tactical groups are on the Belarusian border. There are no Russian troops there at all.
Therefore, I would remove this issue from the agenda. . There is no direct threat there today.
– The Belarusian dictator Lukashenka appealed to the heads of the CSTO member countries to decide whose side they take in the war in Ukraine, hinting that those could directly help Putin. Do you really think there is even one of Putin’s former socialist allies who would be willing to provide him with weapons and possibly his own army?
– There will be none. All of them have already made up their minds. At least, all of them have already distanced themselves from this war. Anything but war. Anything but get sanctioned for supplying weapons.
Lukashenka shows a great activity. He calls on everyone to help Putin, but at the same time, he does not help Putin with anything other than the territory in Belarus, technical assistance and weapons, although there is nothing left there – nothing else.
And the CSTO has made up its mind. No one will get involved in the conflict on the side of the Russian Federation. Not even by supplying weapons.
– You mentioned the climax in March. Will it be a climax in the war as such, or only in its current phase? Can we expect that already in the first half of this year the question of the war will be closed?
– No, it is unlikely that it will be completely closed in the first half of this year. I think it will still be the climax of the war. Because Putin is unlikely to gather a second such mass wave of mobilized. He does not even announce mobilization.
The next stage after this climax is a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It may lead to the liberation of our territories. I think we have a chance to liberate the entire country. After this climax, the resilience of the Russian defense will be very weak.
A cascading collapse of the defense may happen. If any one direction falters and we go deep into the occupied territories, the other directions could just fall apart.
“A cascading collapse of the defense may happen. If any one direction falters and we go deep into the occupied territories, the other directions could just fall apart.”
The chances are good that we can achieve a cascading collapse of the mafia army. Their deplorable morale, atrocious training and piss poor leadership provide a downright stimulus for such a thing to happen, especially if the AFU manage to achieve a major breakthrough.
It’s a really interesting interview but I wonder why would a Ukrainian colonel even discuss this stuff. I’m sure allot is known in the various intelligence communities but why confirm or reinforce. Is it like Feb22 where the US was disclosing all the intelligence in hopes of stopping Putin. At this point why stop Putin. Let him destroy himself without him knowing what we know. Again I’m not a military person but I would think some things are best kept close to the vest IMHO.
I don’t know, Zelensky seems able to lock down the info he doesn’t want out.
If I were in an occupied area, a little bit of hope wouldn’t be unwelcome.
Feb. 22 disclosures were the right call by the way. Well, that is what the US learned when disclosing planned terrorist plots – it disrupts operational planning.
There is a good analysis here https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/02/21/the-pros-and-cons-of-deterrence-by-disclosure/
Another rashist KA-52 splashed in Donetsk area. Source The Enforcer.