14 FEBRUARY 2023
As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, US officials have informed Ukrainian authorities that a critical moment is approaching to change the trajectory of the war.
Source: The Washington Post
Quote from The Washington Post: “The war in recent months has become a slow grind in eastern Ukraine, with neither side gaining the upper hand. Biden officials believe the critical juncture will come this spring, when Russia is expected to launch an offensive and Ukraine mounts a counteroffensive in an effort to reclaim lost territory.”
Details: The critical nature of the next few months has reportedly already been explicitly stated to Kyiv by senior Biden officials, including Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser; Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary of state; and Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defence, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.
In addition, a week before these officials visited, CIA Director William Burns visited Ukraine. He briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Russia’s military plans for the coming months and emphasised the urgency of the moment.
The Biden administration is currently working with Congress to approve another US$10 billion in direct budgetary aid to Kyiv and is expected to announce another major military aid package next week and impose new sanctions on the Kremlin around the same time.
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the full-scale war, the West is also seeking to signal to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine is not waning.
But some experts warn that neither Russia nor Ukraine will gain a decisive military advantage in the foreseeable future.
Biden and his top aides say they are determined to support Ukraine for as long and as fully as possible. But they warn that the policy course could become tougher after Ukraine exhausts the current congressional aid package, which could happen as early as this summer.
At the same time, according to the news outlet, there is underlying Western tension over how Ukraine should focus its resources in the coming months.
It is noted that for many months, Ukraine has spent significant resources and troops defending Bakhmut in eastern Donbas. However, American military analysts are convinced that it is unrealistic to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive to regain the territories temporarily occupied by Russia.
The United States considers the liberation of land more important.
US officials believe that if Ukraine continues to fight wherever Russia sends troops, it will work in Moscow’s favour. Therefore, they urged Ukraine to prioritise the timing and conduct of the spring counteroffensive, especially as the United States and Europe train Ukrainian soldiers to use the most sophisticated weapons that are already appearing on the battlefield.
The Biden administration is also convinced that Russia’s capture of Bakhmut “will not lead to significant strategic shifts on the battlefield” because it “will not result in any significant strategic shift in the battlefield” because “it’s a dot on the map for which they [Russians – ed.] have expended an extraordinary amount of blood and treasure”.
In addition, US intelligence officials believe that the liberation of the heavily fortified Crimean peninsula is beyond the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.
At the same time, Biden’s aides say that they are sticking to the best course of action: giving Ukraine the opportunity to regain as much territory as possible in the coming months before sitting down with Putin.
Journalists fight on their own frontline. Support Ukrainska Pravda or become our patron!
“But some experts warn that neither Russia nor Ukraine will gain a decisive military advantage in the foreseeable future.”
Must be the same “experts” that crumpled up a map of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022, and tossed it in a waste-basket.
“US officials believe that if Ukraine continues to fight wherever Russia sends troops, it will work in Moscow’s favour. Therefore, they urged Ukraine to prioritise the timing and conduct of the spring counteroffensive, especially as the United States and Europe train Ukrainian soldiers to use the most sophisticated weapons that are already appearing on the battlefield.”
So far, Ukraine has not only fought like a lion, but even retook three major regions … and even an island with hardly a navy. Why haven’t they gained a little more confidence by now?
“In addition, US intelligence officials believe that the liberation of the heavily fortified Crimean peninsula is beyond the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.”
That’s why Ukraine is asking for certain items!
Hey Assholes and asswipes in Washington how about you warn the fuckin Russians instead of us!!!!
The earlier article I published from National Review proved that “we are with you for as long is it takes” is purely for public consumption. The above article concludes with the chilling words:
“Biden’s aides say that they are sticking to the best course of action: giving Ukraine the opportunity to regain as much territory as possible in the coming months before sitting down with Putin.”
WTF? Sitting down with a genocidal, hate-spewing nazi is going to achieve what exactly?
That’s why he’s a scum sucking son of a bitch piece of shit. Now let me tell you how I really feel.
I doubt that is what the administration thinks: I think it is rather about giving Ukraine the best possible position.
Ukraine isn’t sure of a new aid package after the summer thanks to the Republicans.
Screw you Bert and this republican bullshit that you’re spreading.
Republicans were in charge when Ukraine got invaded in 2014???
In 2014 they weren’t arssegivers yet.
Then McCain was still alive.
I’m so sorry Bert but there’s no cure for your level of vacuous behavior. Perhaps one day. We can only pray.
There is no reason to divide Americans we are solidly behind Ukraine. There are always a couple of shock jocks of the opposition, its the nature of politics but only a fool gives them any credence.
The best way to help Ukraine get in a position of strength is to trust Zelensky and Zaluzshny, give him what he needs and get the hell out of the way.
Well said, sir Red!
I agree that the next aid package isn’t assured, and WH statements are intended to get support among the populace for a ‘reasonable’ position. It stinks but is politics. There are both Democrats and Republican who want to put their head in the sand and ignore the realities.
I don’t really think Biden expects a sit-down with Putin to result in a favorable outcome, but more of a “ok we tried” and check it off the list before proceeding to the next option.
As for retaking Crimea, you really have to expect that US public support will dwindle with large civilian losses -especially if negotiation wasn’t tried.
I expect Poland and other countries in the region will push for the necessary aid to cut Russian supply lines. We all know what that means. Goodbye Kerch bridge.
Before that though, Ukrainians are going to need to get good at operating NATO equipment.
In the end, I expect the US position will be negotiations failed, retaking Crimea is necessary morally and strategically, Ukraine doesn’t have the capability, F-16s etc are needed, and we need to make this happen.
It’d be nice if ATCAMs could be in the picture, but I suspect those are reserved for the Marine re-alignment in the pacific. They are not in great production and their replacement is still be tested and not online yet.
Vietnam yeah … lose public support and you lose support for the effort. MAGA republicans are keen on using fear of Ukrainian aid to sway votes their way. I worry Russia will play along with them. I don’t think it’s fair to say all Republicans though. Time will tell how it goes.
Finally a sensible and non-partisan comment.
I do not think F-16’s are a prerequisite for taking Crimea.
Russia doesn’t have a lot of soldiers in Crimea, as basically everything they have are moved to Zaporizia and the Donbas.
Imagine Ukraine takes out a big chunk of what they have in Zaporizia, they can only move so much to fall back to Crimea.
They cannot supply Crimea when the Kerch bridge is destroyed and Russia cannot bring landing craft to the Black Sea as Turkey controls the Bosporus.
I think Ukraine needs some long range missiles and armored vehicles.
One big problem with Biden is that he is not a great leader. He isn’t even a good one. He lacks communication skills, strength and stamina. The “help Ukraine for as long as it takes” is a vague and piss poor way to tell the voters what the plan is. I miss great statements that a Kennedy or Reagan would say and a plan that makes sense. Allowing too much leeway for mafia land and constricting Ukraine’s capabilities are terrible ways to handle this crisis. This guy has failed to see the great potential of Ukraine, or he chooses to ignore it, or he listens too much to those who should be selling hot dogs instead of advising a president. He overestimates mafia land’s readiness to go nuke. His conception of the overall picture is clouded so much by mushroom clouds, that it hampers our own potential. Dragging this war out is a horrid methodology. Of course, this gives plenty of ammo to those shitheads who suck Vlad’s little weenie, besides causing undue death and destruction. We have one year of war and STILL, we as voters, do not have a clear pathway where this is supposed to go.
Some people just don’t have the necessary level of intelligence to learn anything from past mistakes.
I was going to say that too. Remember Viet Nam?
I also think it is very disrespectful for bureaucrats to publicly advise General Zaluzshny. WTF is that? He is like both Merlin and William Wallace rolled into one, lol.
I’d say stand behind General Zaluzshny and stfu and listen.