Where is the intelligence?


Feb 13

Where is the intelligence?

National media outlets are claiming that Russia has started or is about to start a new offensive in Ukraine. I doubt the veracity of this popular claim. Yes, there are new attacks and advances but nothing that indicates a major offensive.

There is no intelligence for a concentration of forces. There is little evidence of large equipment columns moving across the country. I read about Putin mobilising his population. Numbers have been quoted as anything from 0.5 to 1.5 million. People alone do not make an army. They must be clothed, sheltered, armed, fed and then trained. That takes time and money.

If we accept that Putin can press 500,000 unwilling conscripts into service, that still won’t provide enough force to mount a major offensive. Conservative figures have posited that Russian deaths in the past year to be around 130,000. – Russian wounded and sick or deserting must be at least double that number.

If we accept these figures to be reasonable, Putin is only replacing his losses. He has lost his experienced troops and is sending new men into battle with rusty, old AK47s to die. It is only a matter of time before he requires yet another half a million to replace these victims. The current rate of Russian deaths is about 700 per day, that is one killed every two minutes.

Putin has recently ordered advances in Donbass regardless of cost to claim some sort of victory for the Russian people for the anniversary of the invasion on 24th February. The Russian people will only hear Putin’s voice, all other voices have been silenced.

Will the Russian people see the graves? Will they hear the voices of their sons from the front line? I hope they do, because if Putin is allowed to continue there will be no young men left to rebuild his nation. They will all be buried under Ukrainian soil, – growing corn for Africa.

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

One comment

  1. As usual, Mr. Horsfall hit the nail on its head.
    As I’ve said before, regarding the massive buildup of new conscripts; so what? Their best troops are already rotting corpses, skeletons, gnawed clean by stray dogs, rats, worms, maggots and insects. Many others are hopeless cripples, blind, deaf, missing legs, missing arms, shell shocked wrecks. Who’s left to train all those new conscripts? Nobody. They get a rudimentary drill from some desk jockey, handed a WWII-era helmet, a first generation flak jacket (if they’re lucky), a rusty AK with a handful of ancient ammo, and get sent to their deaths.

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