They scrapped the barrel to collect obsolete equipment.
One has often talked in recent weeks about an impending offensive by the Russian Army. Now, there are signs that it has actually begun. The enemy has managed to mobilize thousands of men, to scrap the barrel to find obsolete equipment, and to begin the offensive in five directions. Nevertheless, even the Kremlin understands that “severe trials lie ahead,” and a great war against Ukraine is futile, and one must end it.
At the end of this war, the Kremlin would like to retain control of Crimea and Donbas. As for the newly seized territories, the enemy can use them to bargain with Ukraine – to exchange them for negotiations. Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, explained this in an exclusive interview with obozrevatel.com.
– Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov says that Russia is begging for negotiations with Ukraine. It has gathered a pool of negotiators and is actively seeking mediators. Note: on the one hand, the Kremlin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine. On the other hand, it seeks to end the war on its current positions. How could you explain such a paradox?
– I think there is no paradox. It reveals the duplicity of Putin and his entire clique. They feel severe trials lie ahead. The results will most likely not be in their favor, despite all the preparations.
They are mobilizing people and scraping the barrel to find equipment. Albeit slowly, they now advance in five directions in the east trying to accomplish Putin’s task.
It is possible that even today, as before a full-scale invasion, the military is reporting to Putin that a great war has little prospect, if not more, is losing. So one has to look for other ways, including diplomatic ones. That is what they are doing.
The Kremlin is gathering its followers all over the world to try to stop the war, but on its terms. And they consist of legitimizing all seizures, both of 2014 and 2022. This is unacceptable for Ukraine; we will never agree to it; no matter how hard it is for us.
But Russia continues to accumulate reserves. It managed to mobilize about 150-200 thousand men who are being trained. Of course, the “partial mobilization” in Russia is pure deception. There is no order from Putin to suspend mobilization. It’s not about orders, after all. It is an absolutely formal issue. They will mobilize as many people as they need. The only problem is how to train them, how to arm and support. And the further it goes, the more problems arise.
As for the position of the West, unfortunately, some Western politicians, well-fed by Putin’s petrodollars and gas dollars, are already raising the question about the end of the war. So what if we lose 20% of our territory, we’ll have peace, and so on.
So the fight continues on a global level, both on the front lines and in the political, economic, and ideological spheres.
– You admit that Putin would like to retain the territories that were occupied until February 23rd, 2022. Would he be satisfied with the option to turn the conflict into a protracted one, as it has been for the previous eight years? Particularly, in order to win the elections of 2024, although we understand what “elections” in Russia mean.
– Yes, it’s an election without a choice. That’s one option. First of all, Russia would like to retain Crimea and also Donbas. They are fighting for the “people of Donbas.” But also new positions, for example, in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
They are considering different options. Including the stages of what and when it would be possible to surrender in order to turn to negotiations. It will gain time for them.
The Kremlin needs time to prepare for a new offensive. As we remember, the last time a pause last eight years. They were gathering forces, planning this war, and in the end they unleashed it.
– In an interview with Taras Bezezovets, U.S. General Ben Hodges stated that the Russians had failed to assemble enough troops to mount a major offensive, as well as to prepare it. The occupant army has also failed with logistical issues. His predictions say the enemy will continue to pelt Ukrainian positions with cannon fodder. Do you agree with these assessments? What is your prognosis for this offensive?
– To put it in perspective, the implementation of these processes has already begun. We can see that the enemy has replenished the reserves that were collected during the first wave of mobilization. However, the situation is no longer the same as it was at the beginning of the war. There are problems with equipment and ammunition. That is why they are counting on the infantry. Its training is a different matter.
They are using cadre units, and then Wagner fighters and the mobilized join them. Those who survive will continue to fight, but a significant number of them are killed or wounded.
The answer to this question has two parts. The first is the situation as it is now. It has worsened. The enemy is slowly advancing in five directions. The task is to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within their administrative borders. On condition of successes at least at the tactical level to bring in a strategic reserve – 150-200 thousand. Although the second motorized infantry division is already being brought in from this reserve from the training range in Belarus to the area of combat operations.
The second one is a matter of principle. It is important for us to receive the necessary military assistance before this large trained group of the enemy enters Ukraine. NATO specialists understand that all conventional weapons must be used to win this war in order to equalize the military potential of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the grouping of Russian troops. Such a prospect exists.
But I agree with Hodges that the prognosis for the Russian side is mostly pessimistic. Hence, their rush and desire to demonstrate successes before the anniversary of the invasion, February 24, originates. It is important for Putin to accomplish some substantial tasks to save face in front of his “people”.
– You mentioned Western aid. US President Joe Biden made a landmark statement in this context. His address to Congress says that “we stand with the Ukrainian people,” “we will be with you as long as it takes.” Is this a purely political statement or evidence that the United States are ready to ensure Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield?
– First and foremost, it is a political statement. However, we know what kind of assistance the coalition of over 50 countries, especially NATO, provides to Ukraine. Given the speed of provision and nomenclature of weapons and equipment, we see that so far the allies do their best for Ukraine not to lose.
Only gradually and very slowly they are moving to the state – and this is partly already declared politically – to ensure the victory of Ukraine and its allies in this war. And this means, as U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at the first Ramstein session, that the Russian army must be brought to a state where it would not be prepared in the near future to fight the kind of wars it is now waging in Ukraine.
This strategic task requires the appropriate logistical support at the level of Ukraine’s victory in this war. So far, it does not exist. Critical components, such as aviation, are lacking. This is not only manned, but also unmanned aviation, strike aircraft, and kamikaze drones, and, of course, the missile and artillery component, in which the enemy has a significant advantage. We experience this regularly when the aggressor country delivers missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.
“But I agree with Hodges that the prognosis for the Russian side is mostly pessimistic. Hence, their rush and desire to demonstrate successes before the anniversary of the invasion, February 24, originates. It is important for Putin to accomplish some substantial tasks to save face in front of his “people”.”
Being in a rush is never a good idea … unless you’re at a party.
Trying to accomplish such a difficult task as breaking through Ukrainian lines by a certain date will be only one more reason why the AFU will break the mafia army’s neck.
Terrorists always have their special dates to use for propaganda purposes too. If poopin doesn’t have anything to claim on the anniversary his blood thirsty nazis back home will not be happy.
When the offensive has failed, he and his ass-givers already have an excuse in the drawers, Red, to explain what the “real” goal was.