Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The defeat of Russia in the war against Ukraine will not cause the collapse of this state. However, the post-war RF can expect big changes. The West can take it into its orbit, keeping it within its existing borders, and make it a part of its world, initiating democratic transformations, as it was after the Second World War with Germany, Italy and Japan.
But before that happens, the current head of the Kremlin , Vladimir Putin , as well as the entire power elite of Russia must disappear, and all of its occupied territories should be returned to Ukraine. As long as Putin is at the head of Russia, there will be war. This opinion was expressed in an interview with OBOZREVATEL by Russian historian and oppositionist Andrey Zubov .
– Is there a possibility that Russia will withdraw from the war with Ukraine within the current borders?
– Anything is possible. And Ukraine may not be within its current borders. Everything happens in life. Any country can split into east and west, north and south. So for now I can’t say anything. But Russia has no more prerequisites for a split than Ukraine. They exist, but they are few. And no one knows how events will develop there.
– Will defeat in the war affect the state of the borders of the Russian Federation?
Why should it have an effect? Germany suffered a crushing defeat in the war, but the West did not change the borders of Germany, Italy, or Japan. Only the Soviet Union and Stalin chopped off pieces from everyone, but this is a typical Soviet manner – to take everything that you can take. The West has long abandoned this principle. On the contrary, he tries to draw the defeated country into his orbit, make it a part of his world and thereby make it a safe country.
This very successfully happened after the Second World War, when Germany, Japan, and Italy became quite safe and, moreover, very important countries for the West. They were terrible aggressors, but their borders were not changed. Even the islands, which at one time were occupied by America, have long been returned to Japan. This must be kept in mind.
Therefore, I think that the West will apply the same model to Russia. This is the most correct and most reasonable. Because if the country is dismembered, if some lands are taken away from it, this causes the people to desire revenge.
After the First World War, everything was so with the Versailles system, and 15 years later Hitler appeared, and even earlier – Mussolini. And the world was plunged into a new terrible war.
To avoid this, they prefer not to split, but on the contrary, to change the country internally – towards democracy, a free market economy, of course, decommunization and denazification. All these things will be. And the unity of the state space, as lawyers call it, will not be destroyed if possible.
– Do you think that the West can take Russia into its orbit with Putin in the presidency?
– Of course not. It goes without saying that this is absolutely impossible. As long as Putin is at the head of Russia, there will be war. It can go anywhere – in Ukraine or in Russia itself – but, of course, there will be a war with the West. In the same way, while Hitler was in power, Nazi Germany’s war with the world lasted.
As soon as Putin leaves one way or another, disappears, when his entourage like Bortnikov, Patrushev , Naryshkin, KGB generals disappears – only after that a normal peaceful dialogue with Russia is possible.
Of course, it involves the complete restoration of the territorial unity of Ukraine, the return of all territories. But the most important thing after that is to find that model of Russia’s existence that will make Russia safe for the world in the long term. It’s the most important.
The West knows how to do it. He demonstrated this after World War II. I think something similar will happen now.
“Therefore, I think that the West will apply the same model to Russia. This is the most correct and most reasonable. Because if the country is dismembered, if some lands are taken away from it, this causes the people to desire revenge.”
This could come to pass. The West doesn’t have the foresight or the courage to dismember mafia land anyway. But, does it need to? We’ll have to wait and see what internal strains will emerge after the defeat of the crime syndicate. There are a lot of different peoples within the borders and some might want to exit the shithole once and for all. Are they brave enough? Do they have enough drive to accomplish getting independent of the black hole that is Moscow?
At any rate, I think that Mr. Zubov has too much confidence in the average ruskie. Democracy in mafia land? Preposterous. Of course, I would rather be proven wrong. But, how do you get the ruskies to not love being kicked around anymore … used and abused?
There will be a nuke exchange before Putin is pushed out.