30.01.2023
Translated from Ukrainian via Google
The country-terrorist Russia constantly accuses the collective West, NATO of the fact that, by providing colossal support to Ukraine , it is actually waging a war against the Russian Federation. But if the Alliance army really entered into direct confrontation with the army of the head of the Kremlin , Vladimir Putin , the war would end very quickly, since Russia’s military potential is less than a tenth of NATO’s potential.
However, a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO could free Putin’s hands in the use of nuclear weapons. Yes, the Russian dictator is unlikely to take this step, the likelihood of an apocalyptic scenario is low. And yet, for now, the West prefers not to approach the dangerous line, despite the fact that all Putin’s bunkers have long been under attack. Ukraine will not join NATO, at least until the end of the war, and the Alliance will openly go to war with the Russian Federation only in the event of an attack on one of its members. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine in 2005–2010, General of the Army Mykola Malomuzh .
– Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that NATO should accept Ukraine into its ranks without fear of “provoking” Putin, since the aggressor has already shown what he is ready to do without any provocations. In your opinion, is this a purely political statement or can there be real decisions on Ukraine behind it?
– Boris Johnson is an active supporter of Ukraine, he is trying in any way to support our defense capability and create security guarantees for Ukraine. One of the mechanisms is, of course, joining NATO. This rhetoric of his is a signal to many Western leaders that they must change their position, especially those countries that are in no hurry to support Ukraine’s entry into NATO during the war.
Why don’t many NATO countries want this? Because they refer to certain provisions of the NATO Charter that you cannot accept a belligerent country. But Boris Johnson is trying to impose his position: let’s change the Charter and accept Ukraine, because there are new realities. First of all, because the biggest war in recent decades is going on in Europe, and cardinal decisions are needed here.
As far as I understand, his proposal will not be accepted, since most NATO countries still adhere to the position that Ukraine should emerge victorious from this war with the support of NATO, but without formal participation in the Alliance.
However, we see clear movement towards NATO. This is the supply of weapons and equipment, and the development of joint measures for security and intelligence in the course of war, this is the application of NATO standards in many formats – both in the military, and in technology, and in command and control, and in political and economic terms. This is a long process.
They believe that we must end the war and meet NATO standards in many ways. First of all, the criterion of professionalism. Today, the Ukrainian army corresponds to it, perhaps more than a number of armies of NATO countries. Of course, other criteria also play a role – the fight against corruption, democracy, a transparent economy and other models of international cooperation that would ensure complete synergy. Let’s not forget that Ukraine already has the status of a major NATO ally. Therefore, in fact, our country receives more assistance than some members of the Alliance.
A number of NATO countries are being careful not to, they say, provoke an escalation directly. If Ukraine joins NATO and the war continues, accordingly, the entire bloc will have to fight with Russia. This worries many.
Therefore, I think the process will go the same way as it goes. There will be assistance to Ukraine, there will be deepening cooperation in terms of the supply of weapons, equipment and ammunition, there will be support at the strategic and diplomatic levels, there will be real interaction at the level of special services, as is happening now.
Thus, we can talk about a certain form of Ukraine’s participation in NATO, but without a formal entry.
– Russian General Gerasimov, who commands the occupying forces in Ukraine, complained that Russia was not ready to send “mobiks” to the front, and also stated that their “special operation” is in fact a war with the entire collective West. If NATO really entered this war today, how quickly could it end?
– If a very effective operation were prepared, then the war could end quickly, because Russia does not have even a tenth of the potential that NATO’s combined forces have. But this, of course, is an increase in the degree with regard to nuclear confrontation and nuclear war.
If NATO entered the war, Russia would try to deploy strategic offensive weapons of “nuclear deterrence”, as the Kremlin said, that is, attacks. Therefore, here the world would already be on the verge of a global crisis and the threat of the destruction of humanity as a whole.
Both Biden and other world leaders feel this trait very clearly. Therefore, I think there will be no global offensive, and such a scenario is not currently being worked out.
It is being worked out in case Russia starts aggression against one of the NATO countries – against the Baltic states, against Poland. Then it will be powerful NATO forces against the Russian Federation. But this will be a response to Russian aggression, and not vice versa, when the Alliance, supporting Ukraine, enters the war.
– We see that the West and the entire civilized world continue to look back at Putin’s nuclear button. Is there a real mechanism today for turning Russia into a nuclear-free power?
– This, of course, is the continuation of our active offensive operations, the transition to a new stage. Not only a defensive, but also a strategic offensive operation, the liberation of territories, and against this background, the weakening of the Putin regime. In this case, politicians and the military in Russia, in the face of the threat of responsibility, will decide the issue with Putin himself – whether to eliminate him or something else. They will negotiate with the West regarding the terms of surrender or peace, but on the terms of maintaining the regime in the Russian Federation for a certain time.
They can motivate this with the same nuclear threat, when nuclear weapons may end up in the hands of new dictators of new states that may be formed during the collapse of the Russian Federation. In return, they will guarantee stability, but on the condition that Putin is removed from power, that Ukraine will be compensated for the losses caused by the war, and so on.
This approach is now the priority. But here it is important that we do not waste time. It is extremely important that our actions to liberate the territories be in the next 2-4 months, until Russia generates new units, corps, divisions, armies, and does not have time to prepare a certain potential. Of course, not high-quality, not high-tech, but massive – tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles, ammunition, and so on.
To deploy such a colossus, Russia needs about six months. This is not only the training of personnel in training centers on the territory of Belarus and Russia, but also the development of equipment and weapons with new unfired mobilized ones. Because mobs are dying en masse. Their effect is minimal.
Therefore, Russia switched to a new tactic: a more powerful pooling of all resources, training for at least 2-4 months and the preparation of new divisions and units that will work for a further offensive on our territories.
– How important in this sense were the decisions made at Ramstein-8?
– In the future, in 2-3 months, we will receive the latest weapons and equipment in large quantities. These are hundreds of armored personnel carriers, more than a hundred tanks – and Leopard, and Abrams, and missile systems. Long-range artillery for 160 kilometers. It is very important to destroy all the reserves that will move from Russia. This will also allow you to create fire shafts behind the front. So we will be able to deprive the enemy of any means to maintain fire and carry out offensive operations both in the east – Lugansk and Donetsk regions – and in the south, in Zaporozhye, Kherson regions, right up to the Crimea.
This scenario is the most priority for today. I think he’s getting ready. The only delay was with the arrival of weapons, equipment and ammunition, because they need millions, not hundreds of thousands, as we were supplied earlier.
– If Russia can still keep nuclear weapons, how can the threat of nuclear war be at least reduced?
“If there is a powerful offensive by the Ukrainian army and the regime in Russia feels that it is rapidly weakening, Putin will no longer be able to control the situation. And his entourage, and the secret services, and the military, and politicians will raise the issue of his removal from power. In this case, there will be no nuclear war, because no one will simply allow Putin to do this, no one will follow his orders, if any.
But if there is a direct clash between Russia and NATO, for example, with strikes against Russia, although this is not expected, and if Putin really can still be in power, he will deploy nuclear weapons, justifying this by saying that “the whole world is up in arms against Russia and wants to destroy us.
This is the most dangerous scenario. But I would not make such apocalyptic predictions, because Putin and the Russian security officials have already been warned that nuclear weapons, both tactical and strategic, are being tracked. All nuclear assets are tracked online. If they are deployed, accordingly, other means of the United States, Britain and, possibly, third countries, primarily NATO, will be deployed.
This will be a preparation for delivering preemptive strikes, almost simultaneously. Nobody wants such a situation, including Putin, because there will no longer be an opportunity for salvation for him.
The funds that will be involved are colossal funds. They will destroy the bunkers, wherever they are. Moreover, their places are known. Of course, this is already a global world war.
This scenario is very unlikely, but it may sound in the Kremlin’s rhetoric. At certain stages, Putin may voice such readiness. And the West will demonstrate readiness to resist. “If you prepare nuclear weapons, you will be destroyed.” In this position, the US, China, India and Turkey have come to an agreement. I think the prevention of nuclear war will be a powerful factor in the consolidation of all countries, including Russia’s allies.
Theoretically, NATO could enter the war and end it within a couple of weeks, at most. But, in order for that to happen, it needs to eject all those who are nothing but like anchors tied on the back of a swimmer.
U.S. and UK must wave article 5 and declare war on russia. Any other willing countries like Poland should also join in. U.S. and UK owe Ukraine big-time for their botched interpretation and watering down of the Budapest Memorandum. Both countries should have intervened in 2014 and things should have never been permitted to progress to where we are today. We can’t go back in time, but we can do the right thing now by giving Ukraine everything it needs to expel the genocidal rashist horde from Ukraine’s rightful territory. Short of N.B.C. no weapon or system should be off the table, no restrictions should be applied to what targets AFU can strike.. U.S. and UK must say enough is enough and join our friend and ally entirely with boots on the ground, naval assets, and dominating air power. The 21st century has no place for an imperialist regime hell bent on genocide and redrawing borders by force. Yes there are risks involved in being so bold, but how can we live with ourselves if we do not do all that can be done to stop such a grave and blatantly evil disregard of everything that is good and decent.