Yuri Kobzar15:58, 01/29/23
In a new offensive, Russia will spend the rest of its military resources and will be unable to withstand a retaliatory strike, the expert believes.
Russian generals are now talking the Kremlin out of a major new offensive in Ukraine because they expect a strategic defeat due to a lack of basic weapons. This was stated by a former adviser to the President’s Office, military observer Alexei Arestovich on the air of Feigin Live.
“Now in the Kremlin, with the participation of the military, there are such discussions after the decisions announced at Rammstein: “Maybe, well, what the hell is it to attack at all? It would be better to resist on the defensive. “But it is clear that the political leadership will insist on an offensive,” Arestovich said.
He noted that the Russian strategy of offensive war, borrowed from the Soviet military school, is based on the massive use of two key types of weapons – artillery and tanks. However, with both of these, Russia now has big problems.
Arestovich stressed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will withstand the Russian onslaught as part of a large offensive, even if they have to retreat 50-100 km in places. At the same time, Russian troops will use up the last reserves of artillery, which there is nothing to replenish.
“And then, armed with Western weapons, with trained personnel, formed by new formations, we will go to take it all back. (…) And it may happen that the Kharkov operation with its pace of flight will seem like a kindergarten to them. Because without artillery and tanks to stop the Leopard tank battalion is a very difficult story,” Arestovich said.
In his opinion, after such a defeat, already in May, the Russian leadership will have to think not about negotiations with Ukraine, but about “shooting right away, or writing a note first.”
Russia’s big offensive – what is known
Earlier, Arestovich expressed confidence that the increased activity of Russian attacks on the front is preparation for a future big offensive, but is not the offensive itself.
According to some experts, the Russian offensive will begin in the coming weeks . However, other analysts say that the offensive will be in the spring .
The speaker of the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces , Sergei Cherevaty, believes that Russia no longer has that large professional army that invaded a year ago. It was replaced by non-professional mobilized. Therefore, Cherevaty believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to repel an attempt at a new big offensive.
(C)UNIAN 2023
The lack of suitable tanks and sufficient numbers of them and artillery are only two aspects of the whole picture. Any offensive will require an increase in supplies. But, the cockroaches have their main supply depots further away from the front lines now, out of reach of HIMARS and Excaliber shells. This will lead to great difficulties for the cockroaches. The poorly trained and led meat puppets will also be more vulnerable to die and to get maimed.