Katerina Chernovol18:23, 01/17/23
In the coming months, the Russian Federation will try to change the situation at the front and seize the strategic initiative.The expert predicted what to expect from the invaders in the near future / photo ua.depositphotos.com
Mikhail Samus, deputy director of the Center for Army Studies, Conversion and Disarmament for International Affairs, believes that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is preparing for a protracted war against Ukraine. He again set unrealistic tasks for the new commander of the occupiers in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov , giving him one last chance to wash away the shame of the failed invasion.
As the expert noted on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel , Putin would like to militarily change the situation at the front within six months, seize the strategic initiative and, somewhere by the middle of the year, fix what he succeeds.
“Either save or occupy new territories, and then, due to the fact that the economic situation in Russia will deteriorate catastrophically, all calculations show this. Because after the introduction of the oil and gas embargo, I hope the nuclear embargo will also be introduced, Russia will This year, according to minimum estimates, it may lose $100 billion. This is a whole Russian defense budget. Therefore, the second half of the year will be economically very difficult for Putin, and he needs to somehow, while there is time, use these six months as much as possible in military terms, ” Samus explained.
According to him, despite these forecasts, it would be very good for Ukraine to carry out its offensive operation, to break Putin’s plans and thus lead to the fact that the Russian dictator will be forced to simply leave the territory of Ukraine until the second half of the year and try to somehow isolate himself in its mode.
Samus also commented on the new task that Putin set for Gerasimov – to capture the Donbass by March of this year.
“I don’t yet see an opportunity for Putin to achieve any success in such a short time. It seems to me that he continues to play with these groups that swarm around him, trying to demonstrate their effectiveness. He gave the task to the Prigozhin-Surovikin group. We saw this Since October, they have launched massive missile strikes and tried to break through the defenses in the Donbas using the Wagner PMC. It did not work. Now Gerasimov has been appointed responsible for this operation, and again he is given unrealistic tasks. Gerasimov’s motivation is very simple – he must wash off shame on February 24, when the Russian army completely failed Putin’s task. Therefore, he is now giving him one last chance,” continued Samus.
At the same time, the expert noted that this is the last chance for the Russian army to somehow use the time – these few months before the summer.
“And, I think, Gerasimov has no chance to achieve this, and he understands this perfectly. There will be some attempts, perhaps in the Donbass, to achieve some progress, but in the strategic plan now Russia does not see any opportunities to achieve result, especially since, for example, I thought that, by all logic, they should start mass mobilization from January 1, if they want to somehow turn the tide, they need a lot of people – 300-500 thousand in order to create a group in Belarus, it takes a lot of people to break through the Ukrainian defenses in Donbas,” he added.
Samus stressed that Ukraine receives heavy weapons from partners. At the same time, Russia does not have the opportunity to increase its armament, there are no high-precision weapons, and there are no modern tanks and armored vehicles either.
“Therefore, they only have the opportunity to quantitatively flood the front with “meat”, scrap metal and somehow try to use this time lag, while we have not yet formed our shock fist with Western weapons and heavy equipment. Russia has just 2-3 months to take advantage of this, but they are again somehow delaying mobilization, it is difficult to explain this. And without mass mobilization, they have no chance of achieving even minimal success, much less occupying the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” the military expert summed up.