There is an option with a favorable scenario for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The prospect of the liberation of all the occupied Ukrainian territories, including the “old ones” like Crimea and Donbas, is becoming more and more real every day. The Ukrainian army has high-precision Western weapons and operates professionally and unconventionally, while the army of Russia, a terrorist state, is still waging war like during the Second World War and losing to Ukraine not only in weapons but also in tactics and strategy.
But the military successes of the Ukrainian army must be accompanied by active political pressure on the Kremlin from not only Western countries, but also from third countries, in particular China and India, which are also not interested in the war in Ukraine escalating into World War III or nuclear war. In a best-case scenario, the Russian occupying army can completely leave the territory of Ukraine in 2-2.5 months. Army General Mykola Malomuzh, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine in 2005-2010, announced such a forecast in an exclusive interview with Obozrevatel.
– If we look at the map of hostilities, we see that the “old”, previously occupied territories of Ukraine, are still under enemy control. What is the main condition for the liberation of the territories? When might this be possible?
– First of all, the prospect of the liberation of the territories, including the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea, is, of course, the successful tactics and then a strategic offensive operation. This should be ensured through unusual actions: carrying out not frontal, but flank offensive strikes, carrying out a set of measures to destroy enemy manpower and equipment, especially that which was transferred from the right bank of the Dnipro River.
Now we cannot talk about specific offensive actions, but we can carry out very successful strikes from the flanks – whether it will be the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson or Luhansk axes. This will allow us to launch a large-scale offensive operation and liberate the territories in the south of the country right up to Crimea, as well as in the east, starting from Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. This, of course, includes strikes from the flanks against the Donetsk group of troops, which is now actively storming Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Pavlivka.
The turning point may be when our best forces and means are concentrated and an unexpected operation is planned to disorient the enemy in relation to our offensive and the main attack axes. And, of course, complex measures that will use the capabilities of high-precision weapons, radar equipment in conjunction with the actions of the Special Operations Forces and the Armed Forces.
We will create the prerequisites for the liberation of the territories by neutralizing all the rear, weapons and enemy headquarters and at the same time launching large-scale operations in certain regions. This applies to the South as a whole, the Zaporizhzhia region, the left bank of the Kherson region, strikes on the flanks and from the rear against the Donetsk group of troops, which is already trying to capture the entire Donetsk region.
In this axis, the enemy concentrated a large group of the Kadyrovites and Wagnerites as well as mobilized troops, creating a knot of problems for us. We cannot just attack, we are conducting aggressive defence. But this makes sense because a large concentration of enemy forces in the Donetsk, Bakhmut, Luhansk axes are targets for our high-precision weapons and missiles. We can reach them over long distances when they cannot reach us yet.
This allows us to destroy a large number of the enemy’s weapons, equipment and manpower. Today we are not talking about 200 killed occupiers a day, but about 500, 600, 700, up to a thousand a day. We can expect a large number of surrendered soldiers and panic among the enemy in case of an offensive operation.
Panic is the peak point for strategic offensive operations. It will allow us to go on the heels of the retreating enemy to Crimea, and completely liberate the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. With a favourable scenario, this can happen in 2-2.5 months.
Certainly, after the 7th Rammstein, we must receive additional military assistance in order for such an operation to be very successful. Because the main strategy is the use of high-precision weapons and military equipment. This is already a war of technology combined with the skill of the military, who know how to act very unconventionally.
These are not frontal strikes against enemy fortifications or, for example, forcing the Dnipro River, but destruction by long-range weapons, strikes not directly, but from other points and positions. This is what the Armed Forces of Ukraine are doing.
Russia acts traditionally, as during the Second World War. It goes on a frontal attack or creates a model of defence: dugouts, trenches, concrete fortifications. But it doesn’t work if we resist correctly.
– In a previous interview, you admitted that it is possible that the occupiers on their own will leave Donetsk if their troops are significantly weakened, the same with Kherson. Here, I would like to cite Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who predicted Russia’s “political” retreat from Ukraine, including Crimea.
– I only partially support this position, because without significant offensive operations, even the most effective political support will not force Russia to retreat. Now it is very important that our allies provide us with active political support, using the interests of Russia to maintain their regime, along with our successful offensive operations. The Kremlin will have to agree to the conditions of the West and withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea in the future.
But this is under the military pressure of our Armed Forces and the political pressure of allies and third countries. For example, China, India, Turkey. Yes, they will not openly condemn Russia for armed aggression, but they may advocate a peace process within the framework of international law, since they, like everyone else, are not interested in unleashing a world war, including a nuclear one. And this means the liberation of territories.
There is the prospect of a symbiosis of military strategic successes and the political pressure of countries. Then, under the pressure of our troops, most of the occupied territories will be liberated, and then the Russians completely withdraw under the pressure of circumstances: both internal military and external.
– The last question, it concerns missile terror. Unfortunately, it continues, despite all the air defence and missile defence systems provided to Ukraine by the allies. After the missile hit Poland, this country voiced the idea of installing its missile defence systems on the territory of Ukraine to protect the country. Is this a good idea?
– I think the option of deploying anti-missile systems in Poland may be considered now, but the deployment of large Polish or American anti-missile systems, such as Patriot, on the territory of Ukraine is currently unrealistic because this could be considered as NATO entering into a direct war with Russia. And this is the prospect of a big war and nuclear showdown. Biden and other Western politicians spoke about this, in particular.
I think many military analysts will say that it is necessary to deploy a missile defence system in Ukraine, and we will agree, but in reality, this will not happen. Note how carefully Biden spoke about whose missile fell Poland. He stated that there was no direct evidence that it was a Russian missile and admitted that it could be a Ukrainian air defence missile. He said this in order not to be drawn into a direct confrontation with Russia.
Therefore, I think they will continue to adhere to this position. That is, Poland will not deploy its missile defence systems in Ukraine, but Poland will strengthen its air defence capabilities in the country and the other NATO countries of the Eastern Bloc will do the same, the Baltic countries, Slovakia and Romania.
They can help us in terms of radar, intelligence on air targets and so on. But I don’t think there will be direct participation. As part of the 7th Ramstein, our air defence system will be strengthened using the latest weapons.
We are already shooting down about 80% of all missiles. In some cases, we destroy 100% of kamikaze drones. This is a very good indicator. Few countries can perform the same. For example, the Israeli Iron Dome can shoot down tactical missiles but is not capable of neutralizing ballistic missiles with the same efficiency.
If we get new declared funds, then this is a prerequisite for smashing 90-95% of the targets. That is, we will be able to close the sky on our own. We will cooperate with American space intelligence, use the capabilities of European countries, including Poland.
We will step up our efforts and create our own air defence system with the help of our allies. With their advice, with the help of their specialists, and so on. I think that we will not only receive but also install additional air defence systems within a month.
We are talking about new NASAMS, and Spanish, Italian-French very effective systems, German and British systems. These are dozens of complexes that can reliably and effectively protect large cities and territories. And, of course, energy infrastructure facilities. As for other territories, we will strive to protect them as well.