Seleznev: Putin’s army will be killed if it comes from Belarus. Interview

21.11.2022

Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces will not slow down with the onset of winter. To liberate the occupied territories , our army will actively use artillery – the most effective mechanism for destroying the enemy.

On the eve of the New Year, the scenario of an offensive by the Russian occupation troops and the troops of Belarus on the northern sector of the front is not ruled out. At present, the grouping concentrated on the territory of the Republic of Belarus is clearly insufficient. But even if the enemy gathers 30 thousand soldiers, they will all be killed, provided that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have an adequate supply of artillery and ammunition. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL by military expert Vladislav Seleznev .

– In Mariupol , the movement of occupiers ‘ equipment with new markings is recorded. What is this sign in the literal and figurative sense of the word? Is it possible to say that the Russian occupation forces have activated new reserves and that is how they designate them? What could be the task of these units?

– It is obvious that the movement of forces and means of the Russian occupation army through Mariupol is completely logical. The fact is that after the Crimean bridge was seriously damaged, the Russians do not have the opportunity to use this communication line to meet the needs of their troops, who operate in the south of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

It is clear that there is no through railway line through Mariupol, all railway traffic goes through Volnovakha, so we cannot record the traffic through Mariupol, but on the highway along which the military transport of the Russian occupation forces moves, all this is recorded. Mariupol is one of the intermediate points for the movement of military cargo.

As for the symbolism, it is quite possible that changes are taking place in terms of the formation of new compounds. But I don’t think it’s an important factor. This is a standard position when signals and signs that represent Russian military equipment change from time to time.

But the fact that in terms of communications the very land corridor connecting the temporarily occupied Donetsk with the temporarily occupied Crimea is extremely important for the Russian occupying army is obvious. By the way, the aggravation in the area of ​​Vuhledar is connected precisely with the fact that it is extremely important for the Russians to preserve this communication line, primarily the railway line – Donetsk, Volnovakha, Melitopol.

– The seventh “Rammstein” was accompanied by significant negative events – a massive rocket attack on Ukraine, a rocket hitting the territory of Poland . Do you think that these events can further intensify military assistance to Ukraine? In this context, I would like to cite the words of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who said that the Ukrainian army is much better equipped than the Russian one, so in winter the situation at the front will be on our side.

– Regarding the rocket that fell in Poland, I would still wait for official reports from representatives of the investigating authorities of the Republic of Poland. While we see different statements. On the one hand, the statement of President Zelensky, on the other hand, President Biden and those officials who work in his team. Contradictory estimates. Let’s wait for official messages from the authorized bodies and structures of Poland.

As for the actions of the Ukrainian army in the winter period, it is obvious that the intensity of the Ukrainian counter-offensive directly depends on the volume and pace of deliveries of military-technical assistance from our Western partners.

I can’t say that I was very impressed by the results of the seventh Rammstein. But in any case, I think that both the military-political leadership of our country and the Ukrainian Defense Forces should be grateful for this, because it is obvious that without this military-technical assistance, it would be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian army not only to carry out counter-offensive actions and keep the defense. A huge amount of artillery ammunition, weapons, equipment, equipment and materials necessary to meet the needs of the Ukrainian army for operations in the winter – all this is extremely important.

I am sure that the intensification of hostilities in the winter will not come to naught. The Ukrainian army will continue the counteroffensive, will actively use the artillery component. We remember that the current war is a war of artillery. Obviously, artillery duels and counter-battery combat will continue within the limits of the military-technical capabilities of the Ukrainian army that it possesses. The vast majority of shells currently used by the Ukrainian army are shells that we receive from our Western partners.

– The Belarusian opposition leader Andrei Sannikov, in a commentary to OBOZREVATEL , said that Russia would not be stopped by a missile falling on the territory of Poland. According to his forecasts, events will unfold in the direction of escalation with the participation of Lukashenka . How do you feel about such assessments?

– Obviously, this is a private assessment of the expert. Whether it reflects the situation on the battlefield, we will know in the near future. Most experts agree that if there is an activation on the northern flank of the Russian-Ukrainian front, an attack from the Republic of Belarus, it will be before the New Year, in the 20th of December.

The fact that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are preparing for such a scenario is obvious. This is stated even by Belarusian military officials. Will this attack be successful? Everything will depend on the number of forces and means that the Russian occupying army will be ready to use on this sector of the front.

Arestovich said that in order for the Russians to have at least an illusory chance of success, they need to assemble a group of troops of about 30,000 soldiers. Currently, they have collected up to 10 thousand there. Accordingly, it is impossible to attack with such resources.

We also remember that the equipment that is delivered to the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the needs of that group of Russian invaders needs to be repaired. They are in a state of disrepair. It takes up to 3 months to do the required repairs at production facilities in Belarus. Whether this technique will be ready to implement that plan is not sure.

It is possible that the Russian army will try to attack the northern regions of Ukraine in order to divert part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The situation is very dynamic, we’ll see. Taking into account the fact that the Ukrainian army has prepared engineering and fortification positions, conducted a number of command and staff exercises involving all the Defense Forces, this will not be an easy walk for the Russians, they will suffer huge losses there.

It is also obvious that the dynamics on the front of the Russian occupying army directly depends on the level of their losses. And 90% of their losses are the effective work of our gunners.

If Ukraine has a sufficient amount of artillery and ammunition on the northern flank of the front, then the chances of success for the Russian occupying army, even with a strength of about 30,000, will tend to zero. They will just all be killed.

There are very few routes by which the occupying army can move in the north of Ukraine. All these roads are under fire control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Enemy columns will be destroyed. In fact, the Russian army in this case will face the same failure of the March-February example of this year, when the multi-kilometer columns of this army were simply shot by Ukrainian artillery.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/seleznev-armiya-putina-budet-perebita-esli-zajdet-s-belarusi-intervyu.htm

8 comments

  1. “There are very few routes by which the occupying army can move in the north of Ukraine. All these roads are under fire control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Enemy columns will be destroyed. In fact, the Russian army in this case will face the same failure of the March-February example of this year, when the multi-kilometer columns of this army were simply shot by Ukrainian artillery.”

    Knowing the utter stupidity of the cockroach general staff, it wouldn’t surprise me if they are longing for another bloody nose in the north. But, I doubt that mafia land will attack from there. They’ve already plundered a lot of Belarusian material for the Donbas, and they are currently moving S-300s and S-400s out of the country. It’s all a bluff to keep valuable UA forces pinned on the northern border regions.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. Gen Austin has been a staunch friend of Ukraine, but sometimes; perhaps on the orders of his boss, he says very unhelpful things. Such as “we won’t be dragged into Putin’s war of choice.”
    Why not keep the bastards guessing, instead of constantly ruling things out?

    Liked by 2 people

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