Are Russian Forces on Brink of Collapse?

By Timothy Ash.

I attached a few really good threads on the war in Ukraine (from people who know what they are talking about), but the upshot is in recent days Ukraine has won some incredible and striking military victories which could just spark the early end to this war.

The scale of the Ukrainian victories are immense – Ukrainian forces pushing 50-60 km ahead in a few days.

We all thought the main offensive was in Kherson, as did the Russians, who moved troops South from Donbas, weakening their lines there, only for the Ukrainians to exploit that by launching a surprise offensive in Donbas. They look set to surround as many as 10,000 Russian troops there who are I think on the point of collapse. Notable that the Russian general commanding the “Western” theatre – Donbas in essence – has been captured so safe to say Russian forces there are surrounded, leaderless and likely close to rout/collapse.

This has been tactical genius by the Ukrainians – likely helped/planned by the Yanks (reminds me of operation Storm in Serbo-Croat war in 95′).

As people are writing this could mean not only the Ukrainians won the Battle of Kyiv, but now the Battle of Donbas, and next stop Kherson, even Crimea.

Indeed, after weeks of softening up with HIMARS and seeing the fate of their brethren in Donbas we could see a similar Russian military collapse around Kherson which, quite incredibly would leave Crimea open to full scale attack – something which could never have been imagined before Feb 24.

Total collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine is now possible, even likely I would say, what options does Putin have?

The conventional military campaign has failed – he has no more troops to readily deploy.

The energy war has failed.

Peace?

WMD escalation? Had the chance but has bottled it so far.

My guess is hastily convened peace talks – the longer Putin waits the worse it is going to get for him.

Reprinted from @tashecon blog. See the original here.

(c) KyivPost

3 comments

  1. “My guess is hastily convened peace talks – the longer Putin waits the worse it is going to get for him.”

    Why the hell would Ukraine want peace talks while they are routing the vermin? Nope, the only time Ukraine should negotiate, is when every orc is dead, or back in the russian shithole.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
    ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
    Lets not over state things. This is much like the Germany counter attack in the Ardeens Forrest the found a weak American Division the 106th broke through leading to the “Battle of the Bulge”

    The UAF has done a masterful job pulling some of Russia’s best units into Kherson where they are in a weak position. They then spotted a vulnerable area and pile drove into RYF and sent them packing.
    They have won a huge vistory both miliarily and morally. They have already proven they are tough tenacious defencers. Now they are demonstrating they can be aggresive attackers also.
    But.
    The Russians are tougher now than in Feb-March. They don’t break and run very often and fight hard. Putin will cut off important parts of his anatomy rather than admit weakness.
    There is still much hard fighting to go.

    Liked by 2 people

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