Specialists of the American Institute for the Study of War predict that in the near future the group of occupying troops on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region will have significant problems with communications, which will lead to the fact that the Russians on this bridgehead will not only be unable to conduct any significant offensive operations, but and will be defenseless against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The ISW states that after Russian troops deprived the last road connecting the left bank through the bridge of the Kakhovskaya HPP, the occupiers in this area remained practically cut off from the main forces.
They begin to experience shortages in fuel, ammunition, food, due to which they cannot “maintain large-scale operations.” Pontoon crossings across the Dnipro will not be able to satisfy the troop group’s need for material support.
“Russian forces on the western bank of the Dnieper will most likely lose the ability to defend themselves even against limited Ukrainian counterattacks,” the Institute for the Study of War believes.
In this regard, analysts predict an even greater demoralization of the occupiers, an increase in looting on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
“Indicators of the deterioration of Russian supplies due to the destruction of Russian communications through the Dnipro will include: a shortage of fuel and ammunition among Russian forces in the western part of the Kherson region, abandoned Russian vehicles, a decrease in the intensity and, finally, a cessation of Russian ground attacks and artillery fire,” American analysts predict .
The attempts of the Rashists to advance in the direction of Bakhmut, according to ISW specialists, are part of the plan of the Russian command to distract Ukrainian troops from the southern direction.
The more desperate they get, the more savage they will be to innocent civilians. That is why Ukraine can ill afford delaying their counteroffensive, but are forced to by the fact that they STILL have not received the amount of heavy weaponry that they need.
As to whether they have sufficient boots on the ground, only they know. I would think they will need c.90,000 troops to take and hold Kherson oblast.
The trick now is to make the cockroaches on the right bank use up more material than their crippled logistic system can replace. Once a certain, low level is achieved, UA forces will be able to retake the region easier and with fewer casualties. Until then, it’s slow, careful going for UA forces. A wise strategy.