The clever General will win the next phase of this war

Robin Horsfall Aug 5

Putin has moved his armies to reinforce Kherson in response to the build up of Ukrainian forces. In so doing he has weakened Izium south east of Kharkiv.

Sun Tzu wrote ‘when an enemy retreats advance’. Yesterday Ukrainian forces made a successful, broad front attack north towards Izium to threaten the city.

Now Putin must decide whether to turn his army around and return it to Izium, or to lose Izium to defend Kherson. He knows Ukraine is readying itself to retake Kherson, so, perhaps he intends to strike first in the hope of breaking up those preparations.

The clever General will win the next phase of this war. Advancing on Izium is a bold and intelligent move, it forces Putin onto the back foot. I anticipate a concentration of forces soon that will thrust forward towards Kherson and the Dnipro River. However, this is what everyone expects, perhaps a cleverer man than me has other ideas.

There are eight weeks of good weather left before the rain and mud return. Both sides need a decisive victory before then but the greatest pressure in on Putin. When tyrants fail they usually die.

Pray for Ukraine and its soldiers and remind all political leaders to continue with all the support they can provide. Ukrainian soldiers fight for freedom today so that we don’t have to fight for freedom tomorrow.

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

…….

Comment from Yuriy Semenikhin:

“Judging from the open sources, Ukraine has finally got long range weapons.

I am no expert, so correct me if I am wrong.

The attack that russians don’t see but is the most important in this moment of war is a “square”
Zaporizhzia
Melitopol
Berdiansk
Polohy

Reaching the line
Melitopol, Pryazovske, Prymorsk, Berdiansk
gives the highest benefits with lowest loses.

Installing long range anti-air and anti-ship weapons as well as long range ammunition for HIMARS and Ukraine:
Gains control over entire Azov Sea, no ships are safe
Has a pincer control over Crimean Air Fields, no air raids
Can reach Crimean Bridge with missiles, limiting possible supplies to russian troops in the South of Ukraine
Forces russia to redeploy more air defense forces to the Kerch area
Can reach crossing from Crimea to mainland
Stops russian ability to redeploy troops fast, between South and East of Ukraine

Creates multiple threats for the troops in Eastern Ukraine as well as deep inside Russian territory.

And if russians try to take back those territories, they will need to open themselves for an attack from more critical directions.

I believe, in chess such a move would be called zugzwang.”

………

Laurence Bacon:

“If I were Zelensky, I would feint attacks on both fronts. This would force Putin to show his hand as to which he wants to defend more.
A strategy of alternating attacks between the two may force the Russians to spend time and equipment yo-yoing between the two, and allowing the Ukrainians to “pick their battles” according to the opportunities presented to them.”

5 comments

  1. “Ukrainian soldiers fight for freedom today so that we don’t have to fight for freedom tomorrow.”

    You speak for all free, decent, civilised people Robin. Putler and his murder gang speak for all the rest.

    Much, much more help for Ukraine needed NOW.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. One thing is for sure; UA forces have lured the cockroaches into the Kherson region. Yes, they wanted this to happen. Why? Logistics. The cockroaches there are much harder to supply than anywhere else on the entire, long front lines. It’s anyone’s guess what the UA general staff have planned next. They now are gaining more control over what, where and how things are happening than ever before in this war. Clearly, the most clever generals are wearing Ukrainian uniforms.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Ukraine advanced 8 km towards Izium yesterday. Ukraine are dragging the orcs all over the front line, and Putler has no answer, apart from declaring war and calling mobilisation.

      Liked by 3 people

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