Basic questions about the war (1/2)
1. When will the war end?
The war is not going to end anytime soon, not until the end of autumn, not until the end of winter, all the forecasters talking about deadlines are just trying to get the public’s attention. The war lasted 8 years and may continue for many more years.
2. What does the end of the war depend on?
The end of the war depends solely on the ability of the Ukrainian army to inflict such losses on the Russian army that it is unable to recover.
3. Will Russia stop if it seizes Donbas?
No. Russia has concentrated troops in Donbas to create maximum advantage, as the Russian army is short of strength. the Russian army will stop only where it will be defeated – as it was defeated near Kiev, Kharkov and Mykolaiv.
4. Is Russia running out of missiles, shells and bombs?
Russia spends a lot, but they were preparing. Therefore, Russia maintains and will maintain an advantage in military equipment and ammunition for a considerable time, its stocks of ammunition and equipment have been replenished in recent years, and the military industry is working.
5. Why does NATO give us so few weapons?
In fact, NATO gives a lot of weapons, but Ukraine has not created its own stockpiles of weapons and deployed a large army, so everything that NATO gives goes to the front and it is constantly lacking. We were given much more basic weapons and ammunition than we had before the war.
6. Why does NATO not transfer most of its weapons to us?
NATO can’t give us all its stockpiles of weapons, because they didn’t have the largest stockpiles for a major ground war, and because Russia, China, Iran are creating new military threats in the world, and NATO has to provide reserves.
7. When will lend-lease work and NATO will give as many weapons as needed?
NATO countries are now dramatically increasing their weapons production capacity, but this cannot be done very quickly. NATO needs at least a year, in some cases – two years, to start large-scale production of weapons.
Response from Ihor Fesenko:
“Yuri Butusov’s analysis seems to be entirely based on ground force capabilities (without even taking into account superiority of Western MLRS platforms vs Russian counterparts).
But the West also has significant Air Force and Navy capabilities. When Ukraine gets a decent amount of F-16 (or other similar jets) plus advanced air defences, it could tip the scales in its favour.
Even without direct Naval support (which should be also provided), Western jets could extend anti-ship capabilities well beyond Ukrainian coastal line.”
Response to Ihor from Tatiana Yavorska Antrobius :
“Ihor Fesenko while listening to many political and military analytics, myself even every explanation is a 100% logical, frankly we can see totally opposite things are happening in reality
At this point, no one knows… we just have to be strong and fight, help our defenders and believe in 100000000% Victory” 🇺🇦
Basic questions about the war (2/2)
- Can Ukraine win a war with Russia?
Yes, strategically we will win the war with Russia, politically and informationally on our side are the countries that produce more than 50% of the world’s GDP. But Russia (2% of the world’s GDP) maintains a military advantage, and the war is given to us at a very high price – tens of thousands of lives. We have stopped a major Russian offensive, but we cannot defeat the Russian strike groups and destroy the Russian artillery. Russia has the tactical initiative in most areas of the front.
- What is the main advantage of Ukraine in the war?
Quality of people. Therefore, our main task of the war is to save and use people qualitatively. In order not to exhaust people to the last. To constantly improve knowledge and equipment. So that at the moment when NATO weapons go to the front more massively, we have experienced and well-coordinated troops.
- What should the state do?
It is necessary to prepare the army and the country for a long-term ground war. This requires the mobilization of the entire country, a clear defense doctrine, planning documents, changes in the quality of staffing, preparation of reserves, deployment of troops, changes in the quality of support and organization of logistics. Quantity does not decide everything – quality creates advantage, and it is qualitative and systemic changes that are of key importance.
- Can we liberate the occupied territories?
There are no other options for ending the war – until we liberate occupied Ukraine, the war will continue. Russia does not want peace, it demands capitulation and the actual destruction of Ukraine. Therefore, our salvation is only victory.
MR. YURIY BUTUSOV
Chief Editor of Censor.NET Website
He has worked at the newspapers Kijevskije Vedomosti and Zerkalo nedeli (Weekly Mirror). In 2004 Butusov started the website Censor.net and is its editor. This online project is one of the most popular news portals in Ukraine. He wrote the screenplay for the film Orange Sky and produced the film Illusion of Fear. Yuri Butusov is a journalist who reports on incisive social topics and conducts journalistic research.
He has exposed many corruption cases and other crimes committed by the power elite. Censor.net, which was created by Butusov is among the most popular Ukrainian news portal. The main topic covered by Butusov currently is the situation in Ukraine – Russia’s aggression and the military activities in Donbas.