The Main Questions

From Nova Odesa FB page.

Yuri Butusov

Aug 3. 2022

(Translation) :

The main questions:

  1. When will the war end?
    War ain’t gonna end soon, neither late fall nor late winter, all the forecasters who talk about the terms are just trying to get the public’s attention. The war lasted for 8 years and could last for many more years.
  2. What does the end of the war depend on?
    The end of the war depends solely on the ability of the Ukrainian army to inflict such losses on the Russian army that it cannot recover.
  3. Will Russia stop if it captures Donbass?
    Nope. Russia is concentrating troops in Donbass to create maximum advantage as the Russian army lacks forces. The Russian Army will stop only where it will be broken – as it was broken under Kiev, Kharkiv and Nikolaevom.
  4. Do rockets, shells and bombs end in Russia?
    Russia spends a lot, but they were preparing. Therefore Russia has, and will for a considerable time, retain its advantage in combat equipment and ammunition, its supplies of ammunition and equipment have been replenished in recent years, the military industry works.
  5. Why does NATO give us so little weapons?
    In fact, NATO gives a lot of weapons, but Ukraine has not created its own weapon reserves and deployed a large army, so everything that gives NATO from the wheels goes to the front and is constantly missing. According to media reports, NATO has provided in 5 months over 400 tanks, 18 227mm RAFs and thousands of manned and unmanned missiles, over 250 155mm guns including the latest SAU, over 500,000 155mm shells including high precision with their self-propelled shells, dozens of Soviet 152 cannons and 122mm,hundreds of thousands of 152mm,122mm,thousands of 122,220,300mm jets,dozens of 120,82mm mortars to them,nearly 100,000 hand grenades,over 2000 missiles portable anti-aircraft missile complexes,over 8 000 rockets anti-tank missile complexes, anti-aircraft missile complexes, antiship rocket complex “Garpoon”, dozens of radars, hundreds of anti-aircraft missiles, hundreds of air missiles, 10 helicopters, and a large number of other weapons.
  6. Why doesn’t NATO transfer most of its weapons to us?
    NATO can’t give us all their weapons supplies, because they didn’t have the big stocks for the great ground war, and because Russia, China, Iran are creating new military threats in the world, and NATO has to provide the reserves.
  7. When will the land lease start and NATO give as many weapons as needed?
    NATO countries are now sharply increasing the capacity of weapons production, but it can’t be done very quickly. To deploy large-scale production of NATO weapons takes at least a year, in some species – two years.
  8. Will Ukraine win Russia’s war?
    Yes, we are strategically winning the war with Russia, politically and informally the whole world is on our side. But Russia retains a military advantage, and the war comes to us at a very high price – with many thousands of lives, we stopped the great Russian offensive, but we cannot defeat the Russian strike groups and destroy the Russian artillery. Russia has a tactical initiative in most areas of the front.
  9. What is the main advantage of Ukraine in the war?
    The quality of people though. Therefore, the main task of the war is to preserve and use people efficiently. So that by the time NATO weapons go to the front more massively, we would have experienced and coordinated troops.
  10. What should the state do?
    It is necessary to prepare the army and the country for a long-term ground war. This requires nation-wide mobilization, clear defense doctrine, planning documents, changes in equipment quality, reservoir preparation, deployment of troops, changes in quality and logistics organization. Quantity doesn’t decide everything – quality creates advantage, and quality and systemic changes are key.
  11. Can we liberate the occupied territories?
    There are no other options to end the war – until we liberate occupied Ukraine, the war will continue. Russia does not want peace, it demands capitulation and actual destruction of Ukraine. Therefore, our rescue is only victory. (c) Yuri Butusov

3 comments

  1. The final question and answer reveals a brutal and stark truth.
    But the allies can change this bleak scenario with a 500% increase in sanctions and military support.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Well he doesn’t do that facts. Judging from his crisp writing style; even in translation, he sounds like current or ex-military. It’s the facts on the ground as he sees it. Already after 8 years he expects it still to go on for years because putler and/or his successor will not stop.
      He believes that the only chance of peace is total victory for Ukraine and unfortunately that is not entirely in Ukraine’s hands. The defenders need the key allies to step up sanctions and military support by a factor of 400%.

      Liked by 3 people

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