The time is ripe for a counter offensive.

July 31

The time is ripe for a counter offensive.

Russia is firing top grade, anti aircraft missiles at random areas of Mykolaiv north west of Kherson. The S300 (https://lnkd.in/eDQMAvn3) is one of the most advanced surface to air missiles in the world and probably the most expensive on the Russian market. It carries about 330 pounds of explosive which is sufficient to knock a fast jet out of the sky but that is hardly enough to knock down a block of flats. So why would a Russian General waste his high tech, anti-aircraft missiles on blocks of apartments?

Perhaps the General has too many S300s and he needs to get rid of a few. This is highly unlikely. The Kherson Oblast has been starved of supplies because of the demands further east where Russian artillery has been dominating the battle field with heavy daily barrages.

What is more likely is that he has a shortage of other artillery ammunition but is being ordered to throw something back to show that he is still in the game. The S300 has a range of 40km. His resupply routes are being cut behind his front, his depots are being hit and destroyed.

Firing S300s is a sign of desperation, at least in the short term. They might kill or injure a small number of non-military personnel, which is sad, but has no tactical or operational value at all. What I can be sure of is that every S300 fired is a missile that cannot strike a Ukrainian aircraft in the future.

Information like this tells a story. The story it seems to tell is that Russia is currently weak and vulnerable in Kherson. The time is ripe for the counter offensive that is so desperately needed while the weather is dry.

Slava Ukraine!

Who Dares Shares.

Robin Horsfall

One comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.