How has the situation changed on the fronts of the war in Ukraine?
Ukrainian journalist and editor-in-chief of the Censor.net website Yuriy Butusov shared his analysis of the situation in the war between Ukraine and Russia with the Charter97.org website:
— Russia has slowed down its offensive in Donbas. Active hostilities continue in the Kharkiv region and in the south of Ukraine.
Therefore, the war has now become more positional, but, nevertheless, its intensity has not decreased, there is no significant change of the situation. The full-scale war continues and there are no special prospects for significant changes. It is really difficult for Ukraine, but we continue to fight.
— Recently, there have been reports of explosions in the depots of the occupying forces. It became possible thanks to the American HIMARS MLRS. How does this weapon change the course of the war in Ukraine?
— The course of the war in Ukraine is changing thanks to the weapons sent and the way they are used. A single kind of weapon does not change [a situation], it works along with everything else. With the increased density of defence of the Ukrainian troops, combat operations have become more static. The Russian army lost the possibility of some kind of quick breakthrough and began to use the tactics of artillery offensives. They are now trying to crush our defences with mechanized units.
This tactic requires deploying large ammunition depots, supply bases, and deployment of the headquarters of the formations within distances that we can detect.
Under these conditions, when the HIMARS systems arrived, they significantly increased our capabilities. Previously, Ukraine could only strike with Harpoon-type missiles, but now we have the opportunity to strike in a complex way. This brings a large effect, the possibility of hitting various targets has increased. Under these conditions, HIMARS really play a very important role.
— How does Russia react to these Ukrainian artillery strikes?
— Such impacts are sufficiently painful for them, there were many statements. Even Russian propagandists began to demand that measures be taken to combat the HIMARS MLRS. Previously, they tried to hide somehow, not to notice their losses, in every possible way to underestimate the combat capability of the Ukrainian army. But in the case of destruction, when the staff of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division in Kherson was destroyed, this became a very strong blow. The division commander and almost all the officers were killed. These are extremely painful losses, which are confirmed by the Russian occupiers themselves.
— Will Ukraine get more long-range projectiles for these MLRS?
— I think that we will. Now, this is more a question of time and political will.
— How do you assess the likelihood of Lukashenka’s attack on Ukraine?
— I think he’s trying to avoid that. But it is possible that Putin will succeed with his influence.
— Should Ukraine hit Russian facilities in Belarus?
— Yes, on Russian military bases – surely. This is not done simply because of the limited HIMARS ammunition. We are still trying not to strike with HIMARS on the territory of the Russian Federation and Belarus directly.
— The Kastus Kalinouski Regiment fighting in Ukraine. Does this unit have the potential to become the army of a free Belarus and a driving force in the liberation of the country?
— This depends on Belorussians. I know that the Belarusian volunteers are fighting very valiantly. It is in your hands.