Robin Horsfall

May 31

The Donbass is not currently the ‘key’ to the war in Ukraine, Kherson is. Kherson is the tip of the Southern horn of the Russian forces. The Northern tip in Kharkov has already been blunted.

Kherson controls the estuary of the Dnipro river and major routes to Crimea and Melitopol. When they cross the Dnipro Ukraine will cut many supply routes north from Crimea.

Russia has withdrawn some forces to replace its losses in the Donbass so weakening the southern Russian army. Now is a perfect time for Ukraine to advance on Kherson.

Russia’s dependence on long range artillery has been neutralised by the arrival of 155mm guns with a longer range than the Russian guns this will force Russian 152mm guns to withdraw. These 152mm guns have been crucial to Russia maintaining its hold on the ground. They will have to withdraw or be isolated.

Ukraine is a very wide country 785 miles from west to east. It will take time to move heavy ordinance to the east but it will get there. In the meantime it is arriving in the western edges. The troops have been trained and the guns and ammunition are closing on the enemy. The high tech, locating radar will react to every shot the Russians fire and be out of range of their replies. The worm has turned!

Those who have followed my posts will recall that I anticipated the horns being destroyed while the centre was held. To date that seems to be the case. As superior guns and other supplies creep forward to the various fronts the pressure will eventually breach the dam.

It is vital that we in the west do not grow bored with this war, it is at a crucial stage. Momentum must be maintained by all nations who reject the right of Russia to mount aggressive war against a neighbour. We must continue to impose upon all our governments that we want to pay for Ukraine’s freedom however much it costs.

Slava Ukraine!

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Robin Horsfall