Putin Headed for ‘Devastating’ Defeat in Ukraine War: Expert

The war in Ukraine is likely headed for a “devastating Russian defeat,” according to an expert on economic policy in the eastern European region.

In an op-ed published in Foreign Affairs on Thursday, Swedish economist Anders Aslund, who has served as an economic adviser to both the governments of Russia and Ukraine in the past, predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to see “one of the most spectacular failures in contemporary history” as his troops continue to struggle to bring him a military victory three months into the battle.

Aslund said that Russian troops have failed to capture the capital of Kyiv and are “struggling to make any headway in eastern Ukraine.”

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“Ukraine’s military, by contrast, has exceeded all expectations,” he said.

The resistance of the Ukrainian people has delivered an unexpected blow to Putin, prolonging the war way beyond what the Kremlin had been prepared to face when the invasion was ordered on February 24.

As the war enters its fourth month, the determination of the Ukrainian people, alongside the military assistance from their Western allies, is pointing to an unfavorable ending for Putin, whose own troops have begun looking for paths to go against their leader and leave Ukraine.

On Thursday, Aslund warned that the ending of the war will not only be a military failure for Putin but an economic defeat—one that is unlike anything the country has seen and one that will reverberate across the world.

“Today, Russia is facing not just a humiliating defeat but also a horrendous economic collapse, for which Putin bears full responsibility,” Aslund wrote.

Citing the heavy Western sanctions that were swiftly imposed on Russia in response to the war, Aslund said that “In a single day, Putin wiped out most of the economic gains Russia had made since 1991.”

The economist cautioned that the severity of Russia’s economy has pushed the country’s elite to the brink and suggested that Putin could be ousted by those who were once in the president’s inner circle—if public outrage doesn’t overthrow his government first.

“In August 1998, after six days of a far less severe financial crisis, Russian President Boris Yeltsin dismissed his government. Putin, by contrast, has not allowed anyone in his government to resign, compelling everybody to be with him until the bitter end,” Aslund wrote. “Needless to say, fear appears to prevail among the Russian government elite.”

“Social unrest has not been widespread in recent years, but it does occur, and the level of anticipated decline in output and living standards has not been recorded since the early 1990s,” he added. “A natural popular reaction would be widespread social unrest, which would aggravate the tensions among the security services.”

“Whatever the outcome, the West must begin to plan for the collapse as well as the reinforcement of Putin’s regime,” Aslund concluded, noting that, “This would not be the first time Moscow has launched an ambitious military adventure in search of additional territory, only to find itself outmatched and humiliated.”

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-headed-devastating-defeat-ukraine-war-expert-1710410

5 comments

    • Amen to that facts. Pray to God he’s right. But the article does not inspire much confidence. Where is his evidence for this claim? :

      “Today, Russia is facing not just a humiliating defeat but also a horrendous economic collapse, for which Putin bears full responsibility,” ……

      There is no sign whatsoever of these things, unless he knows something we don’t. It just comes across as one of those absurdly optimistic articles that praise the west’s response to putler’s genocide, when we know that economically and militarily it is absolutely nowhere near enough to dislodge the orcs.

      Then he hedges by saying :

      “Whatever the outcome, the West must begin to plan for the collapse as well as the reinforcement of Putin’s regime,”…..

      Ukraine is in defensive mode and apparently massively outnumbered. Appalling atrocities against civilians are being committed. Yet the army is required to retake huge swathes of territory, which requires a 3-1 ratio in their favour, plus heavy weaponry that is still not in theatre.

      Ukraine’s top three allies seem to be resting on their laurels, rather than focusing on defeating putler. In WW2, as soon as Stalin switched sides, FDR gave him the equivalent of $300 billion, none of which was ever repaid and thousands of men in our navy and merchant navy died delivering food, medical and military supplies to Russia in the arctic convoys. It was a colossal effort to defeat a nazi regime.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Mr. Aslund is a good and capable guy with lots of experience. I’m sure that he knows what he’s talking about.
        I know it’s very difficult to find any rock solid info regarding the mafia economy. If you Google “russian economy 2022”, for instance, you sometimes get very contradictory reports. These are from reputable sites. In the end, you are just as smart as before. I go a step further and think about where these people get their data from. Mafia land. What does mafia land do all the time? Lie. So, any positive reporting regarding mafia land is based on lies and fake data.
        And, why aren’t the people hitting the streets, seeing that it is they are the ones who are suffering the most? Stupidity. It’s an undeniable truth that stupidity, in certain regards, is a part of their genes. There are parents who accept the death of their children for this dwarf monster, for Christ’s sake! And, the vast majority of them are used to living in a cesspool. A little more shit and piss in the cesspool doesn’t matter to them.

        Liked by 3 people

        • Orc women and mothers remind me of those Pali mothers; proud that their little Ahmed will grow up to be a terrorist. We saw that monstrous Orc woman who hated Ukrainian children so much that she wanted them dead, proudly proclaiming that she will cut their ears off if they are brought to Russia. (What is it with putinazis and ear-cutting; some orc General was heard threatening to cut off an officer’s ears?). We heard cackling orc wives giving permission for their verminous husbands to rape Ukrainian women “as long as you use protection.”
          Then we hear the Armenian nazi Simonyan saying that they must be allowed to win, “or this will end badly for humanity.”
          An exceptionally foul and foetid ideology is embedded in that benighted, evil land. What it will take to extirpate such a cancer is a moot point.

          Liked by 3 people

          • “What it will take to extirpate such a cancer is a moot point.”
            Most of the older generation of ruskie monkeys are a lost cause. It doesn’t matter anyhow, and, quite frankly, I don’t give a rat’s ass about this cesspool pretending to be a country. Let them savor their shithole, if they want. The most important thing is that they don’t get to export their shitty way of life into Ukraine.

            Liked by 3 people

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