Could have helped with weapons much earlier: the US is dealing with a false assessment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Scouts at first believed that Kyiv would surrender to Russian troops within three days.

Russia suffers heavy losses in Ukraine / TSN
Russia suffers heavy losses in Ukraine / TSN

In American intelligence circles , a large-scale internal audit is being carried out after an incorrect assessment of the military power of the Ukrainian army and the strength of resistance to the invaders.

This is stated in the CNN material .

Scouts at first believed that Kyiv would surrender to Russian troops within three days, then they talked about “several weeks.” But these assessments were false.

If the forecasts were correct, then the supply of the necessary weapons would then improve, the journalists say.

Intelligence officers from the State Department turned out to be close to the truth. They focused on sociological surveys among Ukrainians about their attitude towards Russia.

Other intelligence agencies, the newspaper notes, mainly focused on the military advantage of the Russian army.

American intelligence officers were accurate in understanding Russia’s plans to attack Ukraine, but failed to predict the course of hostilities.

According to former US officials, the so-called “will to fight” is one of the most difficult to predict intelligence intangibles.

Current and former intelligence officials admit that just looking at military “capabilities” does not take into account typical human factors that can be decisive. According to a senior State Department official, assessing the will of the population to fight is an art, not a science that defies analysis based solely on data. But it is a key element in determining how successful the military will be in combat, the official said.

(c)UNIAN 2022


  1. Gee good to know. CIA screws up and Ukraine suffers. Can’t look back, but just another fuck up.

  2. This sheds a bad light on our “intelligence” community, and rightfully so.
    Although even I thought that it would be a rather short war and focused too much on sheer numbers, which showed the overwhelming odds against Ukraine, I kept a focus on other factors.
    I knew right from the beginning that the Ukrainians are willing to fight tooth and nail. The signs were there, even in numerous articles for all to see, which reported about huge numbers of people volunteering for military service, civilian defense groups, and those who merely helped in other capacities. Who hasn’t seen common people – woman, old men, and children – making countless Molotov cocktails, digging trenches, setting up roadblocks, changing road signs? I also mentioned the very low morale that Ruskie soldiers would have after being deployed in the field for weeks and months, and this in the dead of winter.
    Even if the Ukrainian military had been defeated, there would’ve been a widespread partisan war continuing. I was 100% certain of it.
    I hope that our intelligence community has learned their lessons well out of this. They not only lost sight of Ukrainian capabilities, they completely lacked any insight of mafia land’s military’s deplorable state, and this in equipment, soldier qualities, level of morale and leadership. This was very unfortunate for Ukraine, and it could have dire consequences for us in any future conflict with any large and dangerous adversary.

What is your opinion?