Robin Horsfall, retired SAS soldier. May 12

When the momentum of battle swings and the defender becomes the aggressor it is absolutely vital to control one’s army. Having been the receiver of the enemies vicious attacks there is an inherent and perhaps justifiable desire for revenge. As Zelensky’s forces begin to turn the tide he will need to show a different kind of leadership. He will need rein in his generals and prevent them from going too far.

The sympathy of the west can quickly be lost if revenge is exacted on prisoners of war or even on collaborators. Strict orders about the rules of war and the rule of law must be driven into the minds of every man from the General to the lowest private.

A Ukrainian victory must stop at the Ukrainian/Russian border. There will be a desire in the more aggressive leadership elements to take the war into Russia. Western leaders who are actively supplying arms and technology must balance the supply carefully to ensure that Ukraine has enough to win but not enough to mount a punitive expedition of its own.

When and if this war concludes Ukraine will be akin to Germany in 1945, – in ruins. They will have to rebuild and the money to do that will flow from the west provided they hold the moral high ground. Like Germany this war could result in Ukraine becoming a leading power in Europe over the next thirty year. They have agriculture, minerals, gas and shipping and they now have a strong army. A rich and prosperous Ukraine will mean a united Ukraine.

I know it is still early days and perhaps I am a little presumptuous. First the war must be won but it isn’t too early to think about winning a secure, long lasting peace.

Slava Ukraine!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

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Another post from Robin, from 1 week ago:

Putin Has The Ball.

Diplomats know that tyrants are as concerned about the consequences of their actions as their victims. To deal with a bully’s threats they use a method of negotiation that has been dubbed ‘Tennis’,- they simply keep hitting the ball back.

When the bully threatens the response of the victim is ‘If you attack me I have decided to fight, it’s up to you now’. By accepting the fight the victim has already made a decision now the bully has to decide whether to follow through with his threats. It is always down to the one who makes the threats whether to proceed to violence but initially he offers a chance to surrender providing an easy victory. Denied this the victim has batted the decision back to him. The victim says ‘I am ready. I’m sure,- but are you sure you want to do this?’

If the fight starts so be it. More often than not the bully starts to talk and to threaten using terms such as ‘Don’t push me, I will smash you, this is your last chance, You’ll be sorry’. Then it might diminish to ‘Just you wait, When my friends get here’ or ‘Wait until I see you again’.

Putin can escalate and start a war with the west if he wants to, nothing short of our abject surrender will take that away from him.

The west has already made it clear that it will fight if Putin ‘… puts one foot on NATO soil’ Putin has the ball, he warns of terrible consequences, tells us we’ll be sorry, gives the west a last chance, he procrastinates. The ball keeps coming back, ‘decide!’ Putin has to make the decision, the west, NATO, Europe, Australia, Japan they have already made theirs. The ball’s firmly his court.

Slava Ukraine.

Who Dares Shares.

Robin Horsfall