May 2, 2022
The only way that Putin can win is if Zelensky makes a settlement.
Russia’s campaign in Ukraine has exposed the ineptness of the Russian armed forces. All their operations thus far have failed, their technology either doesn’t work or is thirty years behind the systems owned by the western powers. Every day that Ukraine resists is a nail in Russia’s coffin. Russia cannot maintain a long war, it is losing too much equipment and men and it doesn’t have the ability to replace them.
The Rouble is being artificially held up, the Russian stock market has been banned from selling, foreign business assets are being stolen. These short term funding attempts will run out in a matter of months and Russian will struggle to raise capital to rebuild, they will have bitten the hand that feeds them. No one will invest in them twice.
The money Russia earns from fossil fuels will diminish as the west gradually reduces their dependence on Russian oil. That will not return. In the long term Russia is already screwed. Financially Russia is small fry compared to NATO. The economies of the united democracies can outbuy him a hundred times. They have more money, more stuff and more people. On top of that Russia is bleeding experts, the young professionals are running for the door.
In the short term Putin needs a military victory but it’s hard to see how that can be achieved now that western arms and training are arriving in the war zone. The mud (as I previously mentioned) is slowing the Russian advance. Moving in the Spring was simply foolish.
Russian troops are dissatisfied and demoralised. Generals are either in prison or in the ground, every time a Russian HQ sets up it gets hit (No one is asking why?). The ships in the Black Sea have withdrawn out of range of Odessa for fear of Neptune Missiles.
If Zelensky holds his nerve and stays in the fight for another ten weeks Russia will be unable to hold Ukraine or the Black Sea. They will threaten terrible consequences, they will stamp their feet, they will look to save face but it will be too late.
The best hope for Putin is to take his troops home and salvage what he can, but he won’t. He will send his armies into a futile battle and drag his country back a hundred years. His brutal actions might be the catalyst that finally finishes the Russian Empire once and for all.
Slava Ukraine! Slava Zelensky!
Who Dares Shares
Nice one SAS!
From the FB page of Roberto Malini:
“The Russian Federation has shown that civilization is still fragile and that the rights of peoples and nations are constantly in danger. Ukraine is facing a real nightmare, the denial of all the values conquered by humanity: peace, human rights, respect for borders, cultural heritage, protection of children and vulnerable people. Furthermore, Russian propaganda and disinformation, with trolls, regime journalists, and murky investments on social media, constantly pollute the truth. Lavrov, who is a Putin puppet, has gone so far as to say that Zelenski is “Jewish like Hitler”. Another colossal lie, because the Nazi dictator was the cruelest executioner of the Jews and had no Jewish roots. While the president and leader of the resistance in Ukraine is the grandson of Holocaust survivors and is a man who has always fought anti-Semitism. Putin should tell the truth, which is that his regime is arrogant, cowardly, ruthless like Hitler’s National Socialism.”
“If Zelensky holds his nerve and stays in the fight for another ten weeks…”
There is absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t. The situation now is much better than it was several weeks ago. The cockroaches were completely driven out of the north and the eastern-southern campaign is bogged down and there is now not only a continuous supply of arms and ammo but additional heavy weapons, special equipment and training on them. Things are looking ever better and although the country is still not safe, by all means, it is in a much better position. Zelensky has all the reasons to be confident.
No, the rat won’t pull back his troops. They are to bleed to death for his pipe dreams, and he is not only sacrificing their lives for it, but also the country’s well-being and future. Not that I care, seeing what sort of people we are dealing with. Goodbye and good riddance to both the mafia military and its brainwashed moron population.
I hope that Zelensky understands that after all the destruction deaths tortures rapes the Ukrainian citizens can’t possibly think of capitulation.
I have said that there is no possibility of a diplomatic settlement because Ukraine will not back into the Russian night without a fight and the only settlement acceptable is Russia’s complete evacuation from the internally recognized borders of Ukraine. By the same token, the only settlement Putin will accept is the complete subjugation of Ukraine. There is no middle ground.