Robert Muggah. April 29
Russia’s announced war aim of conquering Ukraine’s eastern regions and southern shores is hardly coincidental. These regions—including Ukraine’s section of the Black Sea, now mainly controlled by Russia—account for about half of Ukraine’s conventional oil, 72 percent of its natural gas, and almost its entire coal production and reserves. The bulk of Ukraine’s critical minerals, especially the rare earth metals that are now in high demand, are likewise found in Donetsk and other parts of Ukraine either occupied or threatened by Russia. A number of crucial agricultural crops feeding global markets—including wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil—are harvested in eastern and southeastern Ukraine. The war has not only disrupted the production of these resources, but it has also shut down the supply of vital inputs, blocked export routes, and made future investment uncertain.
Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and much of the rest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast this year means that Moscow now has control over an estimated 80 percent of Ukraine’s massive offshore hydrocarbon deposits, including over 37 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Ukraine’s state energy company, Naftogaz, was preparing to run test drills in 32 offshore blocks, but those plans were upended by the war. Russia appears to be making plans to integrate these and other resources into the Russian energy supply chain, which Europe currently relies on.
Although Ukraine is heavily dependent on imported energy to meet domestic demands today, that could change in the future thanks to significant undeveloped reserves of gas and coal. Before the 2022 invasion, Ukraine imported roughly one-third of its natural gas, more than two-thirds of its oil, and almost half of its coal. Yet Ukraine may have the second-largest natural gas deposits in Europe after Russia—1.1 trillion cubic meters of proven reserves and up to 5.4 trillion cubic meters if probable deposits are included. Ukraine also has 151 operating coal mines and up to 41 billion tons of coal reserves, among the largest deposits in the world. These riches are another reason why control over Ukraine is so attractive to the Kremlin.
Ukraine is also a potential superpower in the production of critical industrial metals. Ukraine has commercially relevant deposits of 117 of the 120 most-used industrial minerals across more than 8,700 surveyed deposits. Although total output was roughly $15 billion last year, the total value of deposits—including titanium, iron, neon, nickel, lithium, and other key resources—could reach between $3 trillion and as much as $11.5 trillion.
Russia may also be eyeing Ukraine’s rare earth metals, believed to be the largest recoverable supply of these increasingly critical resources in Europe. Probable but unconfirmed reserves of lithium—a crucial input in electric vehicle battery production—could also be the largest in Europe.
Thieving on a colossal scale by the putinazis; the most hateful people who ever lived. This on top of child rape, adult rape, torture, vandalism and planned, systematic genocide.
RuSSia must be de-nazified and its economy crushed.