IMF predicts decline in Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 by 35%, omits longer-term forecasts


The Ukrainian economy is expected to contract by 35% in 2022, although precise measures of the damage to the Ukrainian economy are impossible to obtain, according to the updated World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund released on Tuesday.


“And even if the war were to end soon, the loss of life, destruction of physical capital, and flight of citizens will severely impede economic activity for many years to come. For Ukraine, all projections for 2022–27 except Real GDP are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. Real GDP is projected through 2022,” the IMF said in the document.


The IMF said that the 35% drop is broadly in line with the evidence presented by Natalia Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva in 2021 on the most severe conflicts.


According to this study, ten years after the start of the conflict, GDP per capita is still about 28% lower, largely due to a nearly 25% drop in private consumption.


In addition, the conflict is also linked to a sharp decline in official trade, with exports estimated to fall by 58% and imports by 34% ten years after the start of the conflict.


The outbreak of conflict often also causes a significant influx of refugees to neighboring underdeveloped countries in the short term and a relatively small but very steady influx of refugees to developed countries in the long term, the authors of the study said.


In general, due to the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine, the IMF lowered its forecast for global GDP growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.6%, and in the next from 3.8% to 3.6%, and also increased expectations inflation: in developed countries this year – from 3.9% to 5.7%, in developing countries – from 5.9% to 8.7%.


© 2022 Interfax Ukraine


One comment

  1. Awful. Let’s hope it’s nowhere near that bad.
    Economists predict that putlerstan will experience a 10% drop in GDP.
    That is just not acceptable. Their economy must be crushed and Germany must be treated as a hostile state unless it expedites a total trade embargo with the putinazis immediately.

    Liked by 2 people

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