Latest Thoughts on Putin, his war against Ukraine, and the general context

Kyiv Post has compiled some of the most recent astute observations made by our regular contributor, Swedish expert Anders Aslund, on Twitter.

Let me look forward optimistically:

  1. Putin’s war on Ukraine is WORSE than the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-5 for the Russian regime.
  2. My guess is that Russia will have to give up all its territories in Ukraine & face total defeat.
  3. No Russian leader can survive such a defeat.
  4. Putin has done nothing good to Russia after 2004. Suddenly, the wise Russian people will wake up & oust his awful authoritarian kleptocracy (don’t ask me how!).
  5. Meanwhile, the West will be shamed to set up a serious Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
  6. As Putin’s regime collapses, the other former Soviet authoritarian kleptocracies will follow, offering a new chance for freedom, democracy, the rule of law & market economy.
  7. The Biden idea of the world’s democracies strengthening our democratic institutions can come true.
  8. The decisive weapon against authoritarian kleptocracy will be transparency. Reveal all ultimate beneficial owners all over the world! Who does not should not be allowed to participate in the global economy! Did you hear, Cayman Islands and Dubai?!
  9. Then, democracies could launch a fourth wave of democratization (Huntington) to last for two-three decades.
  10. The democracies should thrive on the coming momentum & set up one global organization for democracy building & another for the building of the rule of law.

Other recent comments:

  • Putin’s bestiality in his very personal & unjustified war against Ukraine will define Russia as a terrorist state not permitted into furnished rooms as long as Putin stays the tyrant of Russia.
  • Because of this war, Putin’s regime has become nothing but an impotent shame: curel & ineffective. That is the truth of Putin’s authoritarian kleptocracy.
  • Wonderfully blistering by @edwardlucas: “to claim surprise [at Vladimir Putin’s onslaught on neighbouring Ukraine] is to admit inattention. Again and again we have ignored stark warnings about the dangers facing us, our allies, and our values…
  • Some worry that the Western sanctions on Russia will end or ease too soon. Don’t! These sanctions are likely to hold. Formally, e.g. EU sanctions have to be renewed every half year, but they are. A reason is needed to ease sanctions & Putin never eases up, so sanctions hold.
  • Businessmen hate dealing with sanctions. First, they face sanctions risks, since they can change suddenly; second, financial & credit risks as assets can be frozen; third, and now most important reputational risks. Today, you are a bad person if you do anything with Russia.
  • Will anybody buy any arms beyond Kalashnikov from Russia after it has proven itself useless in everything. Ukraine’s Neptune, from Luch in Kyiv, by contrast, seems a good bet.
  • Sanctions are usually highly inert. Why ease if no result? That would imply failure. Moreover, Western sanctions are coordinated with many partners. Why betray them? Some countries may not be enthusiastic, but do they want to break over sanctions? No, they focus on what matters.
  • “In vain I tried to explain that Putin’s great asset is willpower. He is willing to accept pain, tell lies and take risks. We are not. He relishes confrontation. We shun it. The longer we dither, the worse the outcome. And so it has proved.”
  • After reports that the Russian Federation pulled its so-called troops to the border with Finland, the Finns published a video with tractors moving to the border with the Russian Federation. Bravo, Finland!
  • Since the Kremlin lies about everything in any case and controls all Russian media, Putin can as well declare victory in Ukraine, go home and hold his victory parade on May 9 without killing any more Ukrainians.
  • Has Russia failed to gather sufficient strength to start the long expected offensive in the Donbass? Repeated media & Kremlin signals about a short war or that the main tasks have been accomplish would suggest that as well. Go home, Russians!

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/latest-thoughts-on-putin-his-war-against-ukraine-and-the-general-context.html

5 comments

  1. I have followed Mr Aslund’s work for EP. A good man. God willing his predictions will come to pass in double quick time.
    The putinazis are a satanic cult operating with the blessing of the majority of RuSSian people, who have proved themselves to be as evil as the Lord of the Flies himself; fuhrer putler.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. Mafia land has lived up to its moniker from top to bottom, from left to right, from the inside and the outside. It cannot win, it should not win and it must fall … the sooner, the better.

    Liked by 4 people

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