According to BBC News Ukraine, the parties are finalizing the details of the agreement.
It was originally planned that the agreement would be announced on January 31 during a visit to Ukraine by British Foreign Secretary Liz Trass. But the situation is changing and a different ad format is possible.
Sources of the BBC News Ukraine in the Ukrainian government say that the head of the British government Borys Johnson and the Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki may visit Kyiv next week. The visit has already been officially announced in Warsaw.
It is possible that this may be due to the announcement of the creation of this alliance.
“This option is being seriously considered, but negotiations are underway, we are clarifying the details,” said a source in the president’s office.
The main tasks of the regional alliance should be to counter the Russian threat and work together for the future of European security.
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The creation of the new London-Warsaw-Kyiv axis is taking place against the background of a significant aggravation of the security situation on the Ukrainian borders and the active supply of weapons by Britain to Ukraine.
Union of three
Liz Trass was the first to speak publicly about the new alliance on January 21 in Australia.
The track announced the membership, and British analysts immediately drew a very illustrative political map of the future formation, very similar to the “air bridge” of British arms supplies in recent weeks.Skip Twitter post, 1https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=BBC_ua&dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1484522102535462912&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fukrainian%2Ffeatures-60173211&sessionId=6e1e9098c6359b131fa51ef045cf41616185034f&siteScreenName=BBC_ua&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px
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Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko in an interview with BBC News Ukraine has already commented on the future alliance.
In response to a direct question about the work of the future alliance, Prystaiko advised to wait until January 31, but said it was “not exactly NATO for three.”
“But it is really an attempt to find friends, partners and help at this critical time,” the ambassador said.
According to Pristaik, Ukraine must base its actions on the readiness of individual NATO members to help now.
He reminded that Britain is becoming an increasingly serious ally of Ukraine: a strategic partnership agreement, a $ 2 billion agreement, the supply of anti-tank weapons, the construction of ships and naval bases.
Interlocutors of BBC News Ukraine in diplomatic circles point out that Ukraine initiated a new tripartite format of cooperation between London, Warsaw and Kyiv not so long ago – in early December.
This should be part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to form small alliances: the Lublin Triangle (Ukraine-Poland-Lithuania), the Associated Trio (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova) and the Quadriga (Ukraine-Turkey).
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What he can give
As Pristaiko explains, Britain has its own interests in this part of Europe.
After leaving the EU, they adopted the concept of “global Britain”. They see their interest, they need a friend like Ukraine. A typical analogy is a serious relationship between Poland and Britain of the European continent “, – Pristaiko considers.
According to Serhiy Solodkyi, deputy director of the New Europe Center, this union looks logical. Britain provides one of the largest assistance to Ukraine in the military and security sectors, and Poland has a natural interest in Ukraine strengthening its defense capabilities.
“The deepening of cooperation in this triangle looks natural. After all, these are two countries that are serious about the threat to Russia and have felt it to varying degrees,” said Mr. Solodky.
He considers the transition from bilateral relations with Warsaw and London to the triangle format a serious step forward.
Expert Oleksandr Krayev emphasizes that such an alliance is part of Britain’s strategy to restore influence in the world and the region after Brexit.
“Of course, these are Britain’s political ambitions,” he said. In addition, three countries are actively opposing the Russian threat.
On the other hand, Krayev says, the three countries “have questions” and some claims to Brussels – that is, to the EU.
In NATO, not all countries are ready to resolutely oppose the Russian threat, so Britain continues the tactics of small alliances to work more effectively in Eastern Europe.
“Therefore, such a union of three can act as a kind of Little Entente, as it was in the early twentieth century, when Central and Eastern Europe formed a small bloc and shared the goals of the Great Entente,”
Alexander Kraev also predicts that such cooperation will be more effective than bilateral relations.
“Separately, Poland has announced its readiness to support Ukraine with equipment and weapons, Britain is already doing so. If there is synergy between the two countries, arms supplies to Kyiv will be more efficient, political agreements at the tripartite level will be possible,” he added.
Serhiy Herasymchuk, Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, explains how Poland benefits from the alliance.
“This puts them on a par with the British, strengthens them within the European Union and demonstrates that Poland is involving Britain in security tasks that are of interest to the entire EU,” Gerasimchuk said.
He recalls that in recent years Warsaw has had conflicts with Brussels. And the recent resolution of the Russian-inspired conflict with migrants and aiding the escalation in Ukraine will be Poland’s additional arguments in the debate with the EU leadership.
Also, despite difficult historical disputes with Kyiv, Poland is interested in Ukrainian security.
“They need Ukraine so that there is no big border with Russia if it is occupied or Kyiv embraces Russia,” Gerasimchuk said.
He predicts that Poland will help Ukraine with everything – weapons, resources and equipment – except the direct deployment of its troops.
“In general, in this alliance, Poles indirectly represent the EU, which is also becoming a security actor in some way,” Gerasimchuk added.
Experts are waiting for the official announcement of the union of the three countries and details of the agreement to better understand the format of future cooperation.
But it is already predicted that London’s involvement in the regional alliance is only the first step towards strengthening Britain in the region. And Ukraine should benefit greatly from this and help reduce the threat from Moscow.
“More countries on the eastern flank can be involved in the alliance. For Britain, in the long run, this will be positioning itself as the main sponsor of NATO’s eastern flank defense, this is a new geopolitical position,” Alexander Krayev said.
And the map of the new union, which reflects the logistics of British arms supplies to Ukraine, is the first and most obvious consequence of its operation.