Biden May Up Ukraine Intelligence-Sharing

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin chats with the Ukrainian defense minister.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, right, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran share a word as they attend a welcome ceremony ahead of their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021. (Gleb Garanich/Pool Photo via AP)

15 Nov 2021SpyTalk | By Jonathan Border

With some 100,000 Russian troops now massed on Ukraine’s eastern border, the Biden administration is leaning toward providing Kyiv with battlefield intelligence, according to a former senior NATO official briefed by administration officials.

Such a move would represent a significant escalation in the military aid that the United States has provided to Ukraine so far and underscore President Joe Biden’s determination to push back against Moscow’s efforts to intimidate or reassert its control over the Western-leaning former Soviet republic.

“They are deeply, deeply, deeply concerned about what’s happening,” Ivo Daalder, who served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration, said of the Biden administration officials who briefed him on the Russian buildup of forces on Ukraine’s border. “Hints I’m getting from friends in the administration is that what we should really be doing is sharing battlefield intel, providing surveillance and reconnaissance, flying drones over [the Russian buildup] to really figure out what’s going on.”

Daalder said that, unlike a Russian troop buildup in the same region last spring, administration officials told him the current concentration of forces, as well as their night-time maneuvers and Moscow’s claims of Ukrainian provocations, closely resemble Russia’s military moves prior to its 2014 invasion andannexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. 

“There is a real worry that something really bad is afoot,” Daalder, now president of the Chicago Council  on Global Affairs, told me.

Until now, Biden has maintained former President Donald Trump’s policy of providing lethal military assistance to Kyiv. Over the past year, the United States has given Kyiv nearly $200 million in weapons, including short-range air defense systems, small arms, anti-tank weapons and naval patrol boats.

Douglas H. Wise, a former deputy director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, noted Trump’s motivation in helping Ukraine was personal–to obligate Kyiv to dig up dirt on both Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, as a way of improving Trump’s 2020 reelection prospects–while Biden’s assistance stems from a deeper understanding of how to deal with Russia.

Toe to Toe

“Biden finally realized something no other president has since Kennedy, and that’s the fact you can’t shame, cajole, manipulate, influence or otherwise change Russian behavior except by confronting them when they are being dangerous,” Wise told SpyTalk. 

Under Obama, U.S. military assistance to Ukraine was restricted to non-lethal aid, such as blankets, field rations and first aid equipment, out of concern that any so-called “combat” assistance would upset the Russians and jeopardize their support for Obama’s top foreign policy priority, the 2015 Iran nuclear accord. 

“Every time we did something, the Russians would signal their displeasure,” said Wise, who retired in 2016 as a senior CIA official after a 20-year Army career. “At one point we could not provide rations or boots/clothing because the word ‘combat’ was on the box, as in ‘boots, combat, 1pr.'”

 Providing battlefield intelligence would involve sharing images and analysis of the Russian military buildup from U.S. satellites and drones, giving the Ukrainians a clear picture of the Russian forces massing on their border and their posture.

Wise added, however, that it was likely the Russians would intercept such intelligence reports.

“The reality is we would have to provide that with a high confidence it would get to the Russians,” he said.  “That said, even if it went to the Russians fairly quickly, I&W [intelligence and warning] would still be useful to the Ukraine government.”

The first intelligence reports of the Russian military buildup appeared at the beginning of November, revealing the movement of armored units from bases near Moscow to the Ukrainian border. The reports, based on sattelite images, prompted Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan to consult with NATO allies and other European partners. 

Red Line

Around the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned of Ukrainian “attempts to carry out provocations. . . and drag Russia into some kind of combat.” Earlier, Russian President Valdimir Putin had characterized U.S Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to Ukraine in October as paving the way for the country to join NATO–a red line for the Kremlin. Austin dismissed the claim.

Earlier this month, CIA Director William Burns visited Moscow and told Putin the United States has “serious concerns” about the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border. A few days later, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Moscow against making a “serious mistake” in Ukraine.

In addition to the military assistance that the United States already provides Ukraine, NATO rotates four battalions of combat troops and armor to Poland and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuanian and Estonia. 

More than a dozen Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee recently sent a letter to Biden, urging him to deploy U.S. troops to the Black Sea and supply Ukraine with a wider range of defensive weaponry, such as portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Iron Dome air defense systems, along with battlefield intelligence.

Writing in The Hill, William Courtney, a former U.S. ambassador to several former Soviet Republics, said Russia’s intentions in Ukraine remain unclear. “But the West will be watching,” he said.

— SpyTalk Editor-in-Chief Jeff Stein contributed reporting to this story.

— This article by Jonathan Broder first appeared on Spytalk.co.Related Topics: Military HeadlinesUkraineRussiaJoe BidenGlobal Hot Spots© Copyright 2021 SpyTalk. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

6 comments

  • Not sure we can rely too much on the Biden administration. Not after Kamala Harris was asked a question by a reporter about the Russian threat to Ukraine.

    Her response on Russia’s threat to Ukraine: “Umm… I cannot talk to you about classified information”

    Liked by 3 people

    • Should a cackling halfwit like her even have access to classified information?!

      Liked by 3 people

    • In other words, she has her head in the sand too. This part worries me too: “Biden’s assistance stems from a deeper understanding of how to deal with Russia.”

      I wonder if this “deeper understanding of Russia” had anything to do with their stand down order during the Crimean invasion?! More proof that most journalist’s memories are subject to their political leanings.

      Liked by 3 people

      • If you ask her about black lives transgenders she would have had a million answers ready,

        Liked by 3 people

        • I think she is also well versed in certain types of drugs. Or was she dropped on the head when the doctor pulled her out of her mother? Either way, the cackling hyena is a good match to Biden, both being the worst prez and vice prez in our entire history.

          Liked by 2 people

  • “…the Biden administration is leaning toward providing Kyiv with battlefield intelligence…”
    Why leaning? Why hasn’t this been done already? Is it a fear of gutter rats? It’s the least we can do after our utter failure to honor the Budapest Memorandum and after our extremely embarrassing aid that consisted of blankets and broken Humvees.

    Liked by 2 people

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