The migration crisis provoked by Lukashenka speaks of his attempt to survive by pitting Russia against the West and hiding behind the Russian back. But the Kremlin’s gain here is questionable
Russia froze. All the more hopeless are the murmurs of those who are being rolled under the asphalt. All the more indifferent are those who are watching this. The problem is that the coming silence is more dangerous than turbulence. There is nothing more deceiving than silence. Often, what is supposed to stabilize destroys. What looks like success today will be a strategic defeat tomorrow, and power will be rotten.
Here are the paradoxes of Russian dialectics:
Elections. Treacherous legitimization of autocracy. Making elections an instrument of the status quo makes them a ticking time bomb. In the absence of a legal instrument of change, the only way of renewal is a coup, either ” street” or both.
Loyalty trap. Unity works as long as it can rely on the loyalty of both the service apparatus and the population. But loyalty is directly proportional to the coaxing resource. Its exhaustion makes loyalty illusory. And, therefore, a breeding ground for the coming betrayal.
Russian impressionism . The blurring of boundaries between opposites – law and lawlessness and deliberate vagueness of norms provokes the irresponsibility of the authorities. But the refusal of the ruling authorities from responsibility and clear rules gives rise to a mirror situation in society – it does not feel any obligation towards the authorities, nor the need to follow the rules.
Consolidation through the search for the enemy. Sooner or later, the ” cleaners” move on to purge the elite. And to demonstrate loyalty to the personifier, and in the struggle for goods and influence. Devouring one’s own is an inevitable step in the process of searching for enemies, and devouring comes with appetite.
Resource curse. So far, the sale of raw materials is filling the Russian budget, keeping the system alive. But what happens when the world no longer needs a Russian gas station? The idea of achieving ” carbon neutrality” for Russia by 2050 looks like another myth. After all, the economy and the mechanism of enrichment of the ruling corporation will have to be rebuilt. Is she ready for this?
“Schroederization” of the West . The Russian elite managed to corrupt the Western world. But let’s not underestimate the ability of a liberal civilization to purify itself in the name of survival.
Isolation undermines the statehood. The Kremlin’s desire to isolate the country from external influence is understandable. But the state can be an influential player only if it is fully integrated into world relations. Isolation of the population turns the political elite into outcasts.
Military power as a method of suicide . The trajectory of the USSR demonstrated how the reliance on military power ends up to the detriment of the well-being of the population. History, however, teaches nothing – Russia has returned to its familiar track.
“Boomerang effect”. Russia can seriously influence Western policy. The more the Kremlin is aggressive towards liberal democracies, the more it will provoke a retaliatory containment. Threats and blackmail are the best way to wake up the lazy West and get it back into combat shape.
Who is the foreign agent? In a situation where the elite is sitting offshore, the status of “ foreign agent” turns out to be ambiguous. And the ghetto of the outcast is waiting for replenishment at the expense of those thrown out from above.
Traps ” Pandora”. The offshoring of the incomes of the Russian ruling class says that its nationalization has failed and the West remains a vital resource for it. This means that one cannot be sure of his readiness to follow national interests. Kleptocracy makes state sovereignty questionable.
The repressive ice rink and its double nature . Repression pacifies, but also raises doubts about the strength of those who run the ice rink. Repression narrows the chances of peaceful change by provoking retaliation. And one more thing: punitive measures ” fanning out” and without clear goal-setting ( including ” shooting” our own people) means the repressive mechanism goes beyond the limits of system logic and control.
Lukashenka’s trap or “ hedgehog in pants”. The migration crisis provoked by Lukashenka speaks of his attempt to survive by pitting Russia against the West and hiding behind the Russian back. The task is obvious: to milk ” two cows” at the same time, having received compensation from the EU and the support of Moscow. The EU will have to back down on humanitarian grounds. But the Kremlin’s win is doubtful: Russia will be held accountable for its ward’s “hybrid attack” against Europe. Or admit that he has no influence on him.
The West is retreating, but for how long? Liberal democracies, faced with existential challenges, prefer to enter into dialogue with their opponents. But one must also see something else: giving up the hope of integrating Russia ” into the West,” they will restore the ability to contain it, surrounding Russia with a moat. Why do democracies increase their defense budgets?
USA-China – New Bipolarity. Russia is losing its role as the main rival of the United States and is being pushed into the second echelon of states. It is humiliating, because sliding down loosens the sovereign bond. More importantly, in the event of a conflict between the United States and China, it is suicidal for Russia to support either side. It is even more humiliating if the new ” two” undertakes to rebuild the world without Russian participation.
Can America Become the Leader of the 21st Century? Biden set the task of rebuilding the US infrastructure and giving impetus to the American nation. If it succeeds, America will leap into the future, dragging an inert Europe with it. Russia with its “moderate conservatism”, on the contrary, relies on the past. The multidirectional movement creates a threat not even of confrontation between Russia and the West, but of the isolation of the country that has chosen the past.
Crisis as a means of renewal . The West is stuck in a crisis. But each time the crisis led to the renewal of Western democracies. It is not the crisis that is fatal, but the silence of degradation and decay.