The Kremlin is attacking. Why does the Russian Federation need a “migration crisis” in the EU and what does Ukraine have to do with it?
The migration crisis, which can now be observed on the Polish-Belarusian border, is not some natural process, but a hybrid attack of the Russian Federation on the EU, organized by “someone else’s” hands. UNIAN was interested in what was happening, why the offensive on the borders of Europe was “transferred” from Lithuania to Poland, what threats it poses to Ukraine and whether we are ready to confront them not only in words.
For several days, all of Europe has been watching with concern the migrants who, not without the help of the Belarusian special forces, are trying to break through the Polish border . And, despite the fact that there is a direct attack on an EU member, the EU is still demonstrating a toothless position and attempts to … “negotiate” with Putin. For example, Angela Merkel calls him, and Austria offers to hold an international conference “on Belarus” on its territory (although there is not even a trace of the date of the “emergency summit”) and hints at a meeting on this site between Biden and Putin …
But what does Russia and the Kremlin have to do with it?
First, this is not the first such campaign organized by Russia. In 2015, the EU countries were already attacked by “refugees” from the Middle East. At that time, the overwhelming majority of the EU population was so scared that it even tended to the idea of changing the format of the EU and the Schengen agreement. And Russia has demonstrated in every possible way that it is ready to help the EU solve the problem with migrants, with a hint that for this Putin is waiting for the lifting of sanctions.
Secondly, the fact is that the current “refugees”, as the Russian-language propaganda tries to present them, are also not citizens of Belarus at all, who, perhaps, would like to escape from the bloody dictatorship of Alexander Lukashenko to cozy Europe.
Political analyst, expert on international politics Taras Chornovil draws attention to the fact that illegal migrants on the Polish border come from Africa and the Middle East, who “did not cross the sea on flimsy rafts to find themselves in southern Italy, and did not crowd into the holds of ships. fleeing from Cuba to the United States: “They bought expensive plane tickets in their countries, calmly entered the airport and flew to Belarus … And it should be noted separately that they flew from Damascus, controlled by Russia.”
Thirdly, the attack by migrants on the EU countries did not start from Poland at all. Lithuania was the first to be hit this summer. A simple scheme worked: illegal immigrants arrived in Minsk on tourist visas, after a few days of legal stay in Belarus, with the help of Belarusian “guides” they went to the border with Lithuania. And there they began to look for how to cross it. Sometimes the “guides” themselves showed the migrants exactly where to go … According to the information of the Lithuanian authorities, the Belarusian structures (both informal and official, which were also “in the share”) received from 3 to 7 thousand euros from each migrant.Alexander Lukashenko / photo REUTERS
As the head of the Lithuanian Seimas Committee on National Security and Defense Laurynas Kasciunas told UNIAN, this situation was Alexander Lukashenko’s response to European sanctions , so he tried to force the same Lithuania to dialogue, but “this tactic was not created in Belarus, it is the methodology of Russia.”
What worked in Lithuania, Poland does not fit
Why did the vector of movement of “refugees” shift from Lithuania to Poland? Several factors converged here.
To begin with, Lithuania has shown fierce resistance to illegal immigrants and those behind them. The aforementioned Laurynas Kasciunas was the first to talk about the need to build a fence on the border with Belarus, which would “protect the EU from an authoritarian regime.” Since the word did not differ from the deed, in July Lithuania began to create a temporary cordon of double-triple barbed wire. Not far off – the emergence of a 508-kilometer four-meter fence with a “thorn” at the top . Its construction started at the end of September. Construction is scheduled to be completed in 2022. Its cost, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to 152 million euros.
In addition, Lithuania has tightened its legislation, making the stay of illegal migrants in the country as uncomfortable as possible. “They go to the center of residence, but must be there constantly, not being able to go outside for cigarettes, anywhere, for six months. Also, they can no longer endlessly appeal against the decision on political asylum. There can be only one appeal. “, – told UNIAN the head of the Lithuanian Seimas Committee on National Security and Defense Laurynas Kasciunas.
For the first time since the declaration of independence, Lithuania has introduced a state of emergency on parts of the country – along the border, five kilometers from it and in places where migrants are resettled (it began to operate on November 10 and, tentatively, will last a month). During the state of emergency, illegal immigrants will be restricted not only in the right of movement, as it was before, but also in the right to correspondence and telephone conversations.Lithuania will take measures to contain migrants only in case of full support from the EU / Image REUTERS
And one more thing – Lithuania clearly emphasized to its partners in the EU that everyone understands that the ultimate goal for illegal immigrants is completely different countries. Therefore, Lithuania will take all measures to restrain migrants, blocking the transit route only in case of full support from the European Union. That is, if there are more illegal migrants than Lithuania can accommodate, the EU will take some of the illegal migrants for itself. Otherwise, Lithuania can solve the problems with the “refugees” very quickly – it will simply give them the opportunity to move on.
As for Poland, the EU demonstrates complete “toothlessness” regarding the offensive on its borders (automatically – on its own), as mentioned above. This is mainly due to the “cooling” in relations with the Polish authorities due to the Polish judicial reform . One of the disastrous for Poland results of the confrontation between Warsaw and Brussels has already become “punishment” with money. More precisely, their deprivation. In particular, Poland was to become one of the largest recipients of money from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (volume – 750 billion euros) – it should have received more than 30 billion euros of cheap loans and more than 20 billion euros of grants from the European Union. But when this will happen and whether it will happen at all is a big question. The allocation of funds was delayed for an indefinite period.
In other words, in the current situation in relations between Warsaw and Brussels, Poland will in no way be able to follow the example of Lithuania and dictate its own terms.
On the other hand, it was Poland that was subjected to the migrant attack, since it takes a tough stance on Nord Stream 2. Now, when the Kremlin pipe will undergo certification (a draft decision on it should be issued by the German Federal Agency), and Poland has already intervened in this process by submitting an application to participate in it (and the German Federal Network Agency provided PGNiG, as well as its German branch PGNiG Supply & Trading GmbH admission to the procedure), for Moscow there is nothing better than driving another wedge between Warsaw and the EU. And, let Poland pass migrants to the German border, there are no guarantees that Germany will not accuse her of doing this on purpose …
But even without this, Germany today is more likely to take the position of a lawyer for Russia than a strong European player defending the interests of the EU. Moreover, the Germans criticize the Poles for allegedly behaving differently with migrants. They say that instead of not allowing illegal immigrants into their territory, it is worth providing those in need with basic humanitarian protection and the right to consider an asylum application. The other day, a huge resonance in Ukraine was caused by the statement of the expert on foreign policy of the ruling Social Democratic Party in the German Bundestag Niels Schmid .Germany offered to solve the migration crisis at the expense of Ukraine / photo REUTERS
He proposed to involve Kiev in solving the problem of refugees on the Polish-Belarusian border. The idea of the German politician is as follows: with Ukraine it is necessary to agree on the admission of illegal migrants “for a while” – while their application for asylum in the EU is being considered. “This way we can make it clear that not every refugee will automatically enter the European Union,” Schmid said.
It is strange that someone does not understand this even without unnecessary gestures.
In any case, after this statement, Ukrainian experts and analysts agree that Germany should pay generously for such wishlist (and not only financially). The skepticism about the possibility of “reaching an agreement” with Kiev is, first, the German policy of double standards. On the one hand, Berlin has long been rather sluggish in responding to Kiev’s proposals on the need to defend the eastern borders of Europe (which run in the Donbass). On the other hand, it supports the commissioning of another Russian gas pipeline (just business), only promising Ukraine some kind of “guarantees” for gas pumping through our GTS.
Secondly, it is no secret in Ukraine that Germany (and not only Germany) is not very happy about our aspiration to join the EU and NATO. But are we entitled to agree to any proposals of the German parliamentarians on migrants, if we are not even members of these organizations (not one European “family”)?
“The idea from the Bundestag to accommodate migrants in Ukraine is brilliant, but it has a big flaw. Did you ask the refugees themselves? Should we conduct a survey among them where they want: to Ukraine or to Germany? And based on this make a decision,” ironically political scientist Pyotr Oleshchuk. “Otherwise, it is a violation of the free will of the individual and an obvious oppression of his inalienable rights.”
“We can make it clear that not every refugee will automatically enter the European Union,” Schmid said. But we clearly understand that then every refugee will definitely get to Ukraine. Germans, thank you for the lessons, you taught us how to calculate the costs, “says Yuriy Romanenko, a political scientist, an expert on international and domestic policy at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.
In his opinion, before expecting that Ukraine will agree to such proposals, Germany should remove restrictions on the supply of weapons to us, give written guarantees to pump gas after 2024 through the territory of Ukraine, allocate funds for the construction of protective structures on the border of Ukraine with Russia, so that prevent illegal entry of migrants into our territory.
“Let Germany build a plant for the production of equipment for the construction of plants for the production of bioethanol, biogas as part of reducing our dependence on Russia, expand the quotas for our industry and agriculture within the FTA between Ukraine and the EU … In short, money in the morning – migrants in the evening. – it will not work to talk to Europe in any other way. As an alternative, deep concern can be offered, “Romanenko said.
Border is locked tight?
All this does not change the understanding that there is a danger from Belarus and Russia for Ukraine. According to First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Yevgeny Yenin, in this regard, Ukraine is strengthening the northern border, pulling up additional equipment, drones and is ready for provocations. “The probable directions that migrants can get to Ukraine have already been calculated,” he says.Illustration REUTERS
Ukrainians living in border areas are asked to inform law enforcement officers about the possible appearance of strangers .
“We receive timely information from all our special services …. We respond to all possible threats by strengthening our forces and means, which are in close proximity to the state border of Ukraine,” Yenin said.
But theory is one thing, and practice is quite another. As the instructor for survival, camouflage, tactics of small groups, a soldier of the Air Intelligence BV unit Sergei Dobry Vishnevsky told UNIAN, today the system of guarding the Ukrainian border is built to cope with a few violators, not thousands. And it should be understood that migrants will be in the place where it will be possible to make bright stories about them for news.
“I lived for about a month in a border village in Volyn and saw with my own eyes what we have with the border. Our mushroom pickers freely enter Belarus and vice versa. You can buy one in almost any shopping center.Problems can only be with navigation, it is easy to get lost there, but it can be solved … Similar problems are found along the entire border of Ukraine, in our North, on the border with Transnistria. the OOS zone, and there it is passed to the DRG. The whole country lives as in another world “, – says the specialist.
Sergei Vishnevsky emphasizes that in an emergency, one must act extremely: “You need to actively defend the border. There are engineering fences that can be quickly and easily installed for kilometers. There are wire fences, quick-set barriers, ditches, embankments … allowing you to quickly transfer forces to the desired section of the border. To prevent such a “zombie apocalypse” of illegal immigrants, you can prevent them from windbreak. So the piled forest is not so easy to overcome. There is a resource for this. And an important point is the readiness of the terrorist detachments. We must be able to assemble and provide several thousand children with everything necessary in a few hours.what we have now is not enough. “
Vlad Abramov, Tatiana Urbanskaya