The Taliban invaded Afghanistan. Is this the new ISIS? And why will the consequences be dire for Russia and the whole world? Answering the main questions about the situation in Kabul
On August 15, the Taliban announced that Afghanistan was completely under their control. The terrorist organization took over the country in a matter of weeks – after the US withdrew its troops from there. What all this means and how the situation threatens the people of Russia, Meduza found out from Andrei Serenko, an expert at the Russian Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan.
– Is it inevitable that the Taliban will take Kabul ?
– From the outside it seems that the main event that provoked such an offensive is the withdrawal of American troops. This is true?
– This is one of the factors. But even after the US left, everyone thought the Americans would maintain air support [for the Afghan government]. And the Americans gave unequivocal signals that this would be the case. But in fact, they stopped it almost immediately.
It was this lack of air support that broke the straw that Afghanistan was holding on to. It played a fatal role. After that, the Afghans simply could not have enough strength to resist the Taliban.
Another thing is that in order to end the war in Afghanistan, it was necessary to exert massive pressure on Pakistan – to impose economic sanctions and so on. It is there that the training camps of the Taliban are located, the business of these people, and so on. In fact, the Taliban are a hybrid unit of the Pakistani army. If pressure on Pakistan were carried out, the Taliban would be done away with in a few months. Now we are actually witnessing a Pakistani victory in a hybrid war with Afghanistan.USA IN AFGHANISTAN
– Why didn’t the US put pressure on Pakistan?
– You can accuse me of conspiracy, but it seems to me more and more that the United States deliberately surrendered Afghanistan. Pakistan has more than 200 million inhabitants. These are nuclear weapons. This is the complicated relationship of the Americans with the top of the country. Therefore, after weighing all the pros and cons, the Americans considered that Afghanistan should be surrendered to Pakistan. In fact, this is a deal between the US authorities and Pakistan.
– What consequences can Russia expect?
– There will be consequences. Nothing good will come.
There are several aspects here. First, you need to understand that the Taliban are not just the Taliban. These are other jihadists. For example, the Taliban will never sever ties with al-Qaeda , no matter what anyone says. There are already family ties. Family jihad.
But worst of all, what is happening now is a powerful advertisement for jihadism around the world. From the outside it looks like the jihadists have won a victory over the superpower, brought it to its knees. The Taliban are now becoming a fashionable jihadist brand. It is definitely worth waiting for the fashion for the Taliban in Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Being a Taliban will become fashionable.
EVEN MORE ABOUT “FASHION FOR THE TALIBAN”
It is also necessary to remember that, unlike the Islamic State , the Taliban does not invite anyone to Afghanistan en masse. You don’t need to move anywhere. This is jihad at the place of residence. It may well be a situation that you leave the entrance and stumble upon the Taliban.
So I am afraid that we will pay retribution for Russia’s flirtation with the Taliban. And ordinary people, who most often die in terrorist attacks, will pay off. It is known that a cult of suicide bombers is developing in the Taliban. But now they have taken control of Afghanistan. Where will they go to these suicide bombers?
– You said about “advertising jihadism.” Is the situation repeated when IS took over a significant part of Syria?
– What will happen inside Afghanistan in the near future?
– I think we should wait for the rebranding of jihadist groups. People from the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and other groups will move to the Taliban. This is already happening.
Nothing good awaits for ordinary Afghans. Now the country is being occupied by a terrorist group. A group that says one thing and does another. You have to understand that the Taliban are masters of information campaigns. They won the information war against the Afghan government. Therefore, it is possible that the residents are now in a situation of Stockholm syndrome. But it will not last long. Punitive purges, the persecution of national minorities, the gradual replacement of local officials with people from Pakistan and so on will begin soon.
In fact, a colonial administration is now being formed in Afghanistan. Afghanistan will become a Pakistani colony under the Taliban. I do not know how long it will last, but it will be so in the near future.
– There is no hope that the Biden administration will now come to its senses and start some serious action in Afghanistan?
– It’s too late to do something in Afghanistan. The question remains with Pakistan. In theory, the possibility that the Americans will do something cannot be ruled out. In this sense, they used to be hindered by the fact that their [military] contingent was in Afghanistan, and the supplies [of this contingent] came from Pakistan. And in which case it could simply be blocked. Now this factor has disappeared, and in a sense, the US has a free hand.
But they betrayed their allies in Afghanistan. The fact of betrayal, in fact, of the entire country is beyond doubt. Our sources say that America and NATO are now hated in Afghanistan.
So everything is bad. Dark times await us. We are witnessing the birth of a new jihadist fashion. And no Afghan borders will hold these jihadists.