Agreement “against Ukraine”. Why no one will solve our problems
The Nord Stream-2 agreement is a “genre classic” for Ukraine. We are like a “little girl” who has sacrificed herself for “adult games”. Although serious analysts and politicians were well aware that Nord Stream 2 would be completed, it was only a matter of time.
The problem is that Ukraine has not formulated its demands after so many years of conflict with Russia, the way it sees its perspective. And the United States and Germany are aware of what they need to pursue strategic interests. To do this, they need Russia. Whether we like it or not, but using our addiction (including donor money and blah blah blah), we will be pushed to go to bed. If we do not agree – it is our right – we will have to tell the population honestly: “. Instead of believing in a miracle, as they did under Poroshenko, and now under Zelensky.
It was obvious that these large gas pipeline projects were linked to the energy interests of players such as Germany.
All the time we wind ourselves that the “magician on the blue helicopter” will solve our problems – the Crimean bridge won’t be finished, or it will collapse, “Nord Stream-2” won’t finish, or it won’t work (thus Germany and Russia have blown in it tens of billions dollars) … In parallel, we forget about the “South Streams”, which perform exactly the same function as the “North”. In fact, we have already lost the southern direction. Similarly, we will lose the Balkans. We do not see the risks, but we believe that a miracle will happen.
After all, it was obvious that these large gas pipeline projects were tied to securing the energy interests of players such as Germany. They are also linked to the transition to a new way, where gas will be needed to produce hydrogen to replace the capacity of nuclear power plants leaving Germany, to have shunting gas thermal power plants … simply put, there are two hundred and one reasons why it is necessary Germany, why it took a tough stance, forced the United States to reckon with it, which after Trump is critical to build Euro-Atlantic bridges.
Ukraine promises to allocate a billion dollars, such as “green energy”. But in fact – it’s a drop of honey in a huge barrel of tar
There has been, is and will be a difficult game, where the two or three billion dollars that Ukraine clings to, nothing compared to the trillions of dollars that will be generated from this gas and the big projects that Germany and other EU countries will deploy.
We have a misunderstanding of all this, a reluctance to accept reality. And there is a problem with trying to formulate an agenda that allows you to fit into these projects (while being tough, talking about your position, rather than pulling out some crumbs). Now Ukraine is promised to allocate a billion dollars, such as “green energy”. But in fact – it’s a drop of honey in a huge barrel of tar.
We are constantly petty, late, underestimating our opponents and the interests of allies.
Ukraine needs a treaty that guarantees that if there is a large-scale invasion, Germany will refuse to receive gas through Nord Streams
We are told that Germany will take action if Russia uses energy supplies to put pressure on other countries or take aggressive action against Ukraine … they say that if there is a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany will stop consuming gas that will go to ” Nord Streams. ” However, if we are told that Germany is allegedly making some commitments, but this is not fixed by the treaty, it is all nonsense. We must stop trusting such chatter. Every thesis concerning Ukraine that comes out of the mouths of our American or European partners must be fixed in one form or another of commitments. If there is no such fixation, then we are “naked and barefoot.” Well, no one will protect us, no one will stop this gas if there is a large-scale invasion…
Ukraine needs an agreement that guarantees that if there is a large-scale invasion, Germany will refuse to receive gas through Nord Streams. Such a decision must be documented. It must be an international agreement with all the relevant attributes, registration with international bodies.
“Adults” played a “big game”, decided everything for Ukraine
So now the task of our diplomats is to say: “Okay, you say that it will be like this, let’s fix it in the agreement – Germany and Ukraine, or Germany, Ukraine and the United States (as a guarantor of the agreement).” Even if such a serious agreement is signed without Russia, we can talk about something. Without this, some statements and guarantees are worthless. Because it all looks like this: “Maybe we will make sure that after 2024 Russia continues to supply through the Ukrainian GTS. And maybe not … Suddenly, this is how the stars will form …”.
“Adults” played a “big game”, decided everything for Ukraine and now say: “You are small, so follow our decision.” And now we have a simple and at the same time difficult choice – either to continue (we did so for thirty years) to play “trusts” that someone will solve our problems, or to accept the difficult reality in which “adults” live, and to take responsibility , to say clearly: “It is not in our interests.”
Zelensky tried to start playing such a game. The visit of a State Department representative and the outpouring of information that Ukraine should not criticize the Nord Stream-2 agreement are the result of Ukraine’s rather harsh rhetoric. But it will not lead to anything (unless, to even greater problems) without a systemic plan and an understanding of what challenges we will face.
Yuriy Romanenko, political scientist, co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future