Agreement “against Ukraine”. Why no one will solve our problems

The Nord Stream-2 agreement is a “genre classic” for Ukraine. We are like a “little girl” who has sacrificed herself for “adult games”. Although serious analysts and politicians were well aware that Nord Stream 2 would be completed, it was only a matter of time.

The problem is that Ukraine has not formulated its demands after so many years of conflict with Russia, the way it sees its perspective. And the United States and Germany are aware of what they need to pursue strategic interests. To do this, they need Russia. Whether we like it or not, but using our addiction (including donor money and blah blah blah), we will be pushed to go to bed. If we do not agree – it is our right – we will have to tell the population honestly: “. Instead of believing in a miracle, as they did under Poroshenko, and now under Zelensky.

It was obvious that these large gas pipeline projects were linked to the energy interests of players such as Germany.

All the time we wind ourselves that the “magician on the blue helicopter” will solve our problems – the Crimean bridge won’t be finished, or it will collapse, “Nord Stream-2” won’t finish, or it won’t work (thus Germany and Russia have blown in it tens of billions dollars) … In parallel, we forget about the “South Streams”, which perform exactly the same function as the “North”. In fact, we have already lost the southern direction. Similarly, we will lose the Balkans. We do not see the risks, but we believe that a miracle will happen.

After all, it was obvious that these large gas pipeline projects were tied to securing the energy interests of players such as Germany. They are also linked to the transition to a new way, where gas will be needed to produce hydrogen to replace the capacity of nuclear power plants leaving Germany, to have shunting gas thermal power plants … simply put, there are two hundred and one reasons why it is necessary Germany, why it took a tough stance, forced the United States to reckon with it, which after Trump is critical to build Euro-Atlantic bridges.

Ukraine promises to allocate a billion dollars, such as “green energy”. But in fact – it’s a drop of honey in a huge barrel of tar

There has been, is and will be a difficult game, where the two or three billion dollars that Ukraine clings to, nothing compared to the trillions of dollars that will be generated from this gas and the big projects that Germany and other EU countries will deploy.

We have a misunderstanding of all this, a reluctance to accept reality. And there is a problem with trying to formulate an agenda that allows you to fit into these projects (while being tough, talking about your position, rather than pulling out some crumbs). Now Ukraine is promised to allocate a billion dollars, such as “green energy”. But in fact – it’s a drop of honey in a huge barrel of tar.

We are constantly petty, late, underestimating our opponents and the interests of allies.

Ukraine needs a treaty that guarantees that if there is a large-scale invasion, Germany will refuse to receive gas through Nord Streams

We are told that Germany will take action if Russia uses energy supplies to put pressure on other countries or take aggressive action against Ukraine … they say that if there is a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany will stop consuming gas that will go to ” Nord Streams. ” However, if we are told that Germany is allegedly making some commitments, but this is not fixed by the treaty, it is all nonsense. We must stop trusting such chatter. Every thesis concerning Ukraine that comes out of the mouths of our American or European partners must be fixed in one form or another of commitments. If there is no such fixation, then we are “naked and barefoot.” Well, no one will protect us, no one will stop this gas if there is a large-scale invasion…

Ukraine needs an agreement that guarantees that if there is a large-scale invasion, Germany will refuse to receive gas through Nord Streams. Such a decision must be documented. It must be an international agreement with all the relevant attributes, registration with international bodies.

“Adults” played a “big game”, decided everything for Ukraine

So now the task of our diplomats is to say: “Okay, you say that it will be like this, let’s fix it in the agreement – Germany and Ukraine, or Germany, Ukraine and the United States (as a guarantor of the agreement).” Even if such a serious agreement is signed without Russia, we can talk about something. Without this, some statements and guarantees are worthless. Because it all looks like this: “Maybe we will make sure that after 2024 Russia continues to supply through the Ukrainian GTS. And maybe not … Suddenly, this is how the stars will form …”.

“Adults” played a “big game”, decided everything for Ukraine and now say: “You are small, so follow our decision.” And now we have a simple and at the same time difficult choice – either to continue (we did so for thirty years) to play “trusts” that someone will solve our problems, or to accept the difficult reality in which “adults” live, and to take responsibility , to say clearly: “It is not in our interests.”

Zelensky tried to start playing such a game. The visit of a State Department representative and the outpouring of information that Ukraine should not criticize the Nord Stream-2 agreement are the result of Ukraine’s rather harsh rhetoric. But it will not lead to anything (unless, to even greater problems) without a systemic plan and an understanding of what challenges we will face.

Yuriy Romanenko, political scientist, co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future

(C)UNIAN 2021

3 comments

  • onlyfactsplease

    This guy is trying to analyze a book according to its title instead of what’s inside. Nord Stream II has an elemental foundation, called in German Energiewende and which I will call Merkel’s utterly failed energy policy. It is a concept that has no real idea, no real plan and no real concept. It was shaken out of her sleeve after what happened in Fukushima. No, Germany is in no danger of being sought by a tsunami. The only tsunami was in Merkel’s empty skull. Her failed energy policy resulted in some of the world’s highest costs for electricity and precarious electrical energy production. You simply cannot produce the required electrical power for a highly industrialized country like Germany with solar, wind and water power. Thus, this very bad and destructive politician would rather go to bed with a murderer than admit defeat and re-activate the nuclear power plants she so recklessly had shut down. She will trample on anyone that gets in her way – Ukraine just like she did to all of her political foes. Forget about Germany’s other parties and her own party to step in. Germany is effectively a dictatorship. “Mutti” has even interfered with a state election in Thuringia last year, amongst other undemocratic measures.
    Enter a completely useless and senile US president. He talked tough about the little Kremlin murderer but collapsed like a house of cards in his first meeting with him. In a meeting with the Stasi bitch, Biden – the pile of cards – was merely swept off the table.
    Ukraine must eventually leave behind the job of being a transit country for gas – with or without NSII – that is a fact. But, it would have been better for this to happen later than sooner. The country still must get many tasks accomplished and it needs the fees earned by it. Calling Ukraine a little girl is about as stupid a statement as can be. The trillions that this fol is speaking about is very iffy and in the distant future. This makes Ukraine dependent on Germany AND mafia land and this cannot be good for the country. I hope that one day, Ukraine will get a president with more foresight and balls and especially us.

    Liked by 3 people

  • The sd truth is Ukraine has played the Victim Card for to long. Europe and the US are sufferings from Ukraine fatigue. Grandiose plans, loud promises of what ever reforms are required followed by foot dragging and back sliding at the first opportunity.
    You can get away with it for a while but than the attitude by the west changes to “If you do not care about your future then why should we?”
    The Ukraine elites could have avoided this. If Poro or Ze had instituted the reforms they agreed to years ago then they Ukraine economy would be in excellent shape. They would have had billions in IMF and western funding. Their credit rating would have insured that laoans and bonds would have been at a reasonable rate. Foregin investment would have been elaborate. it worked well in Georgiana and Poland.
    If they had increased their Gas production as they loudly proclaimed they would Ukraine’s energy future would not be threatened. indeed their potential surplus would have been a tool of influence in Europe the could not be ignored.
    The economic influence card is far stronger and more reliable than the victem card.
    But Ukraine’s elites just could not give up their corruption. Like Putin’s obsessive need to have Crimea to exclusion of all else, Games of State are nothing to them compared to Games of Scheming. The money is no importance, only the Schemes matter. They are the goal in and of themselves.
    In the end societies choose to succeed or fail. They adapt to change or whither and die. No one can truly make them. They have to embrace it.

    Liked by 1 person

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