Mishustin instructed to bring the level of collective immunity to coronavirus in Russia to 80-90%
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin instructed Rospotrebnadzor and the Ministry of Health to update the epidemiological and mathematical model of vaccination of Russian residents. This was reported on the government website.
When updating the model, one must bear in mind the need to “achieve a level of collective immunity of at least 80 (90) percent,” says Mishustin’s instructions.
It is not clear from the instruction what is taken into account when calculating the herd immunity index at the level of 80-90% – only the proportion of those vaccinated or the proportion of those vaccinated together with the proportion of those who have recovered.
The updated model should also take into account the vaccination of foreign citizens and stateless persons in Russia and the revaccination of the population of the Russian Federation.
In March, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that the government proceeds from the premise that “it is necessary to achieve 60% of collective immunity.” According to Golikova’s forecast, this should have happened by August 2021.
In May, the head of the Ministry of Health, Mikhail Murashko, announced that 60% of the adult population of Russia should be vaccinated by the fall of 2021. In mid-June, Moscow, and beyond it and other regions, announced compulsory vaccination for workers in certain areas. Employers were instructed to organize vaccinations for at least 60% of the staff.
At the end of June, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov admitted that by the beginning of autumn it would not be possible to vaccinate 60% of the adult population, so the timing of vaccination was “shifted to the right.” Sources of “Dozhd” in the apparatus of Golikova clarified that it is planned to complete vaccination of 60% of the population by the end of 2021.
As Meduza previously wrote, it is impossible to say exactly what proportion of the population needs to be vaccinated to defeat the epidemic. Moreover, these shares can be different for different variants of the virus. To combat the delta variant, due to which the next wave of the pandemic began in Russia, it is likely that significantly more than 60% of the population need to be vaccinated.