Bloomberg: Crimea’s water crisis is an impossible problem for Putin

The Russian-occupied peninsula is thirsty, with reservoirs running low. It’s an unwelcome predicament at a time when pressures on the Kremlin are rising.Crimea's water crisis is an impossible problem for Putin / Photo from UNIANCrimea’s water crisis is an impossible problem for Putin / Photo from UNIAN

A water emergency in Crimea is absorbing billions of taxpayer rubles as Russia tries to patch up an impossible problem stemming from the peninsula’s annexation in 2014. President Vladimir Putin’s Black Sea gem looks increasingly like a millstone.

Ukraine dammed the North Crimean Canal seven years ago, cutting off the source of nearly 90% of the region’s fresh water and setting it back to the pre-1960s, when much was arid steppe. Add a severe drought and sizzling temperatures last year, plus years of underinvestment in pipes and drilling, and fields are dry. In the capital Simferopol and elsewhere, water has been rationed, Bloomberg wrote.

Tiny Crimea gave Putin a boost, when, following protests that overthrew Kyiv’s Russia-friendly government, he seized a territory that belonged to Moscow for centuries but had been part of an independent Ukraine since 1991. The annexation of the territory that’s equal to less than 0.2% of Russia’s total helped lift Putin’s national popularity to record levels in the year or so that followed. That bump has since faded.

Today locals, who were made ambitious promises in 2014, are struggling with the fallout from a wide-ranging nationalization drive that’s not always served their interests, a poorly handled, muffled coronavirus crisis – and dry taps. Sanctions-inflated prices, high even after a $3.7 billion bridge over the Kerch Strait linked the territory to Russia, have meanwhile eaten away at pension and salary increases. Opinion polls are hard to come by, but anecdotal evidence reveals building frustration.

The need to pour even more cash into Crimea means Russians elsewhere may lose out. They’re already suffering in an economy slowed by Western sanctions incurred over that move and other misdeeds, and bearing the brunt of the Kremlin’s decision to focus on stability over growth, limiting pandemic income support. The crisis of 2020, perhaps as much as 2014-2015, has hurt households first and foremost.

Crimea cost 1.5 trillion rubles to support in the first five years of occupation, equivalent to roughly two years of Russia’s education budget, according to one former central bank official – more than $20 billion at today’s exchange rate. This year, subsidies, grants and subventions alone will add up to around $1.4 billion. And the price tag is set to rise.

Water isn’t the only struggle, but it’s been the toughest to resolve, especially since winning the return of Crimea remains a priority for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Last month, the Simferopol reservoir was 7% full. Without water from the Dnieper River, Crimea’s arable land has shrunk, from 130,000 hectares in 2013 – already a fraction of Soviet-era levels – to 14,000 in 2017. Thirsty crops like rice have shriveled.

It wasn’t until last year that officials were spurred into significant action on water, with a 48 billion-ruble plan that includes pipe repair to end wastage, well drilling and, crucially, desalination – expensive for crops, but a solace for residents. Government officials said at a Kremlin meeting on Thursday that the problem will be solved.

That’s a challenge. Even if there’s more rain this year, it’s long-term access to cheap water that is vital. That could easily be achieved by reopening the canal – an option Kyiv rules out. Barring that, the idea of a self-sufficient Crimea is a distant one, however many Chinese tourism delegations are welcomed in the hope of drumming up new sources of cash.

Water disputes are nothing new between neighbors and near-neighbors, from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan sparring over the Rogun dam to the Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or the Mekong, in Southeast Asia. In Crimea, it touches the very heart of Russia’s balancing act, between geopolitical ambition, national pride, rising discontent – and the costly reality of sanctions holding back development in the territory to the point where the Kremlin wants to offer some big-spending investors anonymity.

If it isn’t patched up soon, this crisis risks coming to a head at an important time for Putin. He needs a solid win in September’s Duma state assembly and regional elections – the last before 2024, when his current term ends. Russians still overwhelmingly support the annexation of Crimea. It’s less clear that will continue as the resulting costs rise, national growth stagnates and the pandemic endures, potentially prompting other regions to demand their share of spending.

The Kremlin faces a difficult pass. After unprecedented street protests over the jailing of critic Alexey Navalny, it’s cranked up efforts to silence naysayers, with social media clampdowns and the mass arrest last weekend of municipal deputies.

Could rising political pressure and sheer thirst combine to spark a Russian incursion into Ukraine? Such a move could mean access to the dammed canal, while delivering a timely nationalist boost. But that seems improbable. It would raise questions over plans for the eastern Donbas separatist region, where conflict simmers. And Ukraine is useful bogeyman to explain away the failure to develop Crimea, Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, points out – an easier discussion than under-investment and allegations of kleptocracy.

Water interests on both sides could even shape helpful, if informal, bargains, Hess adds. One possibility would be for Russia to provide guarantees around disputed access to the Sea of Azov, through which Ukraine exports steel, coal and more. In 2018, Russia seized a group of Ukrainian ships and blocked off the Kerch Strait.

The reality is there’s no prospect of an imminent solution. Parched Crimea, where even Russia’s banks fear to tread, is a reminder that the price of international isolation means costly life support and stagnation for all involved.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/water-supplies-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin-11358574.html

(c)UNIAN 2021

9 comments

  • Putin is planning something. I might volunteer to defend Ukraine this time, if granted a higher rank in exchange. The article illustrated moreso that Ukraine is not safe, that Putin continues to pose an existential threat. I hope Washington will finally do something before it’s too late.

    Liked by 5 people

  • Looks like the Moskali have been whining at the UN HRC. Not sure why they are even there in the first place. I can’t publish this BS, as it is blocked here, but I have no doubt as to what it contains.

    https://tass.com/politics/1268141

    Liked by 5 people

    • I read it. It’s a rancid pile of shit, steaming with lies and hate. Exactly what to expect from nazi occupiers.

      Liked by 5 people

    • GENEVA, March 19. /TASS/. Kiev’s Western patrons connive with the Ukrainian authorities, who imposed a barbaric water, transport and energy blockade on Crimea, deputy chairman of Crimea’s Council of Ministers, Georgy Muradov, said at the ongoing 46th session of the UN Human Rights Council on Friday.

      For a period of seven years “Ukraine and a group of Western countries contrary to their international obligations have conducted an inhuman policy of punishing the Crimeans for retaining their language, culture and identify,” he said. “Kiev’s Western patrons connive with the Ukrainian authorities, who imposed a barbaric water, energy, transport, food and humanitarian blockade on Crimea,” Muradov said, adding that “they help Kiev to push through false anti-Crimean resolutions through the UN General Assembly.”

      The declaration of independence by the Republic of Crimea, its recognition and subsequent reunification with Russia “is a legitimate way in which the peoples of Crimea exercise their right to self-determination in a situation following a forcible government coup in Ukraine.”

      “Self-determination became the sole possible way of protecting the peoples of Crimea from ethnic cleansing and repression in the face of rampaging nationalist radicals in Ukraine,” he stated.

      The UN Human Rights Council at its 46th session (on February 22 – March 23) is discussing crucial human rights problems of today, including the observance of religious freedoms and rights of children and disabled. Russia participates in the session after a three-year interval. It was elected to the HRC in October 2020 for a period of three years that began on January 1, 2021.

      After a government coup in Ukraine in February 2014 the authorities of Crimea and Sevastopol made a decision to hold a referendum on reunification with Russia. In the voting held on March 16 more than 80% of those eligible to cast their ballots took part. The unification with Russia was supported by 96.7% and 95.6% in Crimea and Sevastopol respectively. On March 18, the Russian president signed a treaty on the accession of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol to the Russian Federation. On March 21, the treaty was ratified by the Federal Assembly. In defiance of the indisputable results of the referendum Kiev refused to recognize Crimea as part of Russia.

      Here it is 😉

      Liked by 5 people

  • onlyfactsplease

    I truly hope that Ukraine has learned its bitter lessons about mafia land and its methodologies. This means, that I hope that they have taken steps to make any military assault from the Crimea by mafia troops a gateway to hell for them.

    Liked by 4 people

  • Усвідомлення…

    The title of the image is awareness. Typical Ukrainian humour.

    Liked by 5 people

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