Edward Lucas: When regimes fall, there is a split at the top and a collapse at the bottom. In Belarus, both the first and the second are possible
The key to victory is the driving force. Representatives of the regime increasingly understand that it is doomed to failure. Nobody wants to be on the side of the losers.
When regimes fall, there is a split at the top and a collapse at the bottom. In Belarus, both the first and the second are possible. The task of the protesters and their friends abroad is to speed up both processes. The senior vice president of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA, Warsaw and Washington) writes about this in the pages of the Week .
According to him, the physical unmasking of the perpetrators of repressions is one step. And the second is to do the same thing en masse in electronic format. The opposition appears to have gained access to the personal information of each Belarusian police officer. And plans to make it public.
“Another line of attack is against the regime’s external presence. Belarus has many embassies and other diplomatic missions. Some workers may be conservative supporters of the regime. However, in many of them the events in their native Belarus are disgusting. Maybe their children are studying at universities. They definitely watch videos of police brutality, which scares them, “Lucas wrote.
He noted that these people can reconsider their views. Some have already done so. The Belarusian ambassador to Slovakia became one of the first “defectors”. His colleague in the Netherlands gave a strong interview in which he criticized the repression. And more is needed.
“The key to victory is the driving force. Representatives of the regime increasingly understand that it is doomed to failure. Nobody wants to be on the side of the losers. After all, those who challenge the regime are increasingly confident of victory, and more and more people are joining them. When masked men refuse to use batons and their leaders are afraid to give orders, it will be time for Alexander Lukashenko and his gang to flee to the helicopter. And let it happen as soon as possible, “the expert stressed.