Why Russia is unlikely to invade Belarus?
Lukashenko said that he would receive from Moscow comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of Belarus
Lukashenko said that he would receive from Moscow “at our very first request, comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus,” and mentioned Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in this regard. I would like to give you my arguments on why I do not believe in this horror story.
Russia cannot save the falling regimes with its troops. It can host the leader, however, it cannot save the regime if there is no support base left.
The only exception is Syria, but the civil war has already started there, and Russian troops did not occupy the territory, they mainly worked through airstrikes. Whom should we bomb? Workshops of Minsk Tractor Works and Belarusian automobile plant? Or National State Television and Radio Company of Belarus?
Belarusians do not want external intervention and do not want to be part of Russia. Here is the most recent poll of the Academy of Sciences: less than 7% support joining the Russian Federation, less than 25% stand for a closer union. The rest are for the friendship of independent countries. Belarus is not Crimea, which allegedly asked to be saved from the Nazis.
The people who do not ask to save themselves would have to be held back with great force. Tens of thousands of people of occupation troops. And if partisanship begins, which is almost inevitable in this case and on such a social upsurge, hundreds of thousands. And thousands of victims. There is no easy way.
Such an intervention means the loss of the Belarusian people even longer than the Ukrainian one. Those who are friendly to Russia today. According to polls by Vardomatsky’s laboratory, more than 70% support the current format of relations – without borders and customs, only 5-7% stand for breaking the ties.
Add to this the flow of coffins home, the claims of their own people, who have not been explained that the Banderites are striving for power in Minsk, and unprecedentedly harsh Western sanctions.
And what’s the purpose? For the sake of Belarus not entering the EU? Today’s opposition does not support this. And this is absurd given the current dependence of Minsk on Moscow. Leaving the Eurasian Economic Union and closing access to the Russian market means stopping the entire economy for a month. We owe Russia more than 70% of our external debt.
The invasion does not solve the problem of internal stability either. The workers will not return to the factories, there will be a collapse of the banking system, tens of billions will have to be injected for humanitarian needs. Recall that the Russian economy has not yet recovered itself after the coronavirus.
The protesters do not come out with anti-Russian or pro-Western slogans. There is no such agenda at all. The Kremlin is not blind and sees this. Russia has accepted the results of the same unrelated revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
Moscow is always reorienting itself to the winning side. Especially realizing that this side is no more hostile than the authorities taking Russian citizens as hostages for the elections.
Read the Kremlin’s statement after Putin’s morning conversation with Lukashenko. There is a lot about friendship between peoples and enemies, but not a single word is said about support for the current Belarusian president. The Kremlin has taken a wait-and-see attitude.
For lawyers. The CSTO Charter does not provide for military assistance without external aggression (an armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity, and sovereignty) against a member state. Lukashenko blamed the Russians of this throughout the campaign and is now trying to portray a threat from the West.
But it is even difficult to come up with it in this situation. According to rumors, high-ranking Russians and Europeans are already calling up and laughing at these stories. A hybrid attack from the Telegram channel NEXTA is not spelled out in the CSTO charter.
P.S. In order to prevent such a scenario in the future, the transitional Belarusian authorities, in case of victory, should not immediately touch Soviet monuments, change the symbols or cancel the state status of the Russian language in euphoria. But given that there will be a lot of things to do, and according to all available polls, these measures in Belarus are not supported by the majority, I see no reason to think that the transitional government will go crazy and start doing this at all. Everything has its time.