Lukashenka has reached an agreement with the Kremlin & will go all the way, says diplomat Bezsmertnyi
Article by: Roman Bezsmertnyi
Roman Bezsmertnyi, former ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus, believes that Russia has sent armed security forces to Belarus because Lukashenka is losing absolute control of the situation.
Bezsmertnyi is convinced that the violence against the protestors is being directed by the Kremlin.
“What is now transpiring in Belarus has its direct parallels with earlier Ukrainian revolutions, the Revolution on Granite (1990), the Orange Revolution (2004-2005), and the Revolution of Dignity (2013-2014-Ed). It can now legitimately be called a revolution. The tragic reality is that it might also become a war with Russia,” he said.
The diplomat argues that the country-wide protests cannot be stopped because people are not demanding better working conditions or an increase in salaries, but simply because they want Lukashenka to leave.
Consequently, he believes that Russia has already dispatched armed security forces in order to suppress the protests.
“Everyone is complaining that there is no leader. But from my perspective, the tactic is absolutely correct. When one considers the individuals killed by the KGB, meaning by Moscow and Lukashenka, such as Zakharanka (Yury Zakharanka, the former head of the Belarus Ministry of Internal Affairs, who was murdered; and Viktar Hanchar, former head of the Central Election Commission, as well as others who were killed by the KGB), both Moscow and Lukashenka applied the right tactic by managing the whole process behind the scenes.
This tactic is clearly visible in internet networks, specialized communication systems, and coding systems. Everyone is well aware of who administers these sites, and in which districts these little clubs are located. Consequently, when crowds gather and there is violence, the ensuing events are rarely spontaneous.
A similar tactic was employed in Hong Kong. So, when we see 40 locations where the protests are immediately met by special police forces, it’s easily understood that the response was made by the Russia armed forces. As of yesterday in Viciebsk, Homyel, and Minsk, they aren’t even pretending not to be there. Those dispersing the Belarusians were all armed with tell-tale Russian equipment,” said Bezsmertnyi.
Bezsmertnyi is convinced that the crisis in Belarus will increase exponentially on an emotional level, inasmuch as anger is welling up in people beyond a breaking point.
“There is a hidden component we know nothing about. Why? Because when people gather in some location at two in the morning, they are dispersed by special forces that break up the gathering. There is a saying about Belarus and the effects of the Second World War on the country, namely that “wherever you see three birch trees, you’ll also find three graves.” And now, throughout Minsk you won’t find an intersection not stained in blood; they’re simply butchering people.
It is impossible not to be overcome by powerful emotions from these scenes. Critical now is the position of the international community, the European community, and our neighbours. It is discouraging that up until now they have either been non-committal or slow in announcing their position. Remember, it’s Lukashenka we’re dealing with, and he doesn’t care that you didn’t greet him on his victory, although it’s true that in the language of diplomats, the absence of greetings equates to the non-recognition of the election results. In this case, he’s “praying” for help from Moscow, and hopes that Putin will rescue him,” explained the diplomat.
Bezsmertnyi believes that Lukashenka no longer controls the situation; it is managed by Putin. This is the explanation for the violence directed against the protesters by those who have no allegiance to them.
“A Belarusian is a European. I know them, I’ve seen how they work. They are law-abiding people, quiet, and reasonable. And when I watch this chaos, shouting, stress, I see it as a stereotypical Kremlin tactic that will only result in making the situation worse. Then, there will be more instances when regular army personnel cross over to the protesters.
If the protests continue for a few more days, Lukashenka will no longer be there. It’s very important to hear Europe’s voice stating that what’s needed now in Belarus is the formation of a transitional government. And additionally, sanctions. Further, Kyiv must make a clear statement, and not such lame announcements that it’s been issuing hereto .
Look at what happened in Georgia in 2008. Even there, Ukraine’s position was very influential. The world needs to come to Belarus and be prepared to look objectively at how events are unfolding. Putin’s objective is the renewal of an imperial Russia.
In my opinion, the events in Belarus are a litmus test. Putin will stop at nothing. He’ll ignite anything and everything.
There will be an escalation. Armoured vehicles will appear on the streets of Minsk. If that’s not enough, next will come the tanks.
Putin has his sights on everything: he needs Lukashenka to be an impotent president. Next will be the Baltic countries,” explained the former ambassador.
Meanwhile, back in Putin’s Duma government, the advice to Lukashenka was to continue what he has been doing in Belarus. Deputy Kalashnikov is of the opinion that “harsh measures” will help end the country’s revolution within two or three days.
Editor’s NoteFirst, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated his Belarusian colleague Alyaksandr Lukashenka on his victory in the Belarusian presidential election, the Kremlin press service informed.
“I expect that your statesmanship will facilitate the further development of mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all spheres, as well as the further enhancement of cooperation within the Union State, the strengthening of integration processes within the Eurasian Economic Union and the CIS and of military-political ties within the Collective Security Treaty Organization,” states the telegram published by the Kremlin press service.
On August 15, Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin spoke by phone.
The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had told Lukashenka that Russia was ready to assist Belarus in accordance with a collective military pact if necessary and said external pressure was being applied to the country, without saying where from.
Ties between the two traditional allies had been under strain before the election, as Russia scaled back subsidies that propped up Lukashenka’s government.
Translated by: Jeffrey D. Stephaniuk
Edited by: Christine Chraibi