Belarus rebelled against Lukashenka. Why is Russia dangerous now?
Putin will not want to lose the opportunity to annex Belarus by force
Right now, the Russian special services are collecting information and working out operational plans to interfere in Belarusian affairs up to the provision of “ peacekeeping assistance” in accordance with union agreements .
And Russia will most likely intend to provoke the carnage and blood in the same way as it provoked the carnage and blood on the Maidan.
Putin will not want to lose the opportunity to annex Belarus by force in order to prevent the creation of another pro-European state between the Russian Federation and the EU.
Russia will act aggressively to seize full control of the state.
I am worried that Ukraine is now too helpless to pursue any coordinated policy towards Belarus, which is one of our largest neighbors and the situation in it is the subject of our national security.
The President of Ukraine must gather all power structures without publicity. We urgently need to increase the number of observers of the situation from various authorities, as well as the number of journalists who are ready to objectively report on what is happening. We do not need to interfere in Belarusian politics – they will figure it out themselves. But we need to oppose Russian policy, expose the intrigues of Russian agents, try with all our might to prevent Russian provocations and the likely invasion of the Russian Federation.
What’s obvious now?
There is no rebellion headquarters – they are not needed in a modern network-centric society. Everyone can become an information hub on a social network, and each information hub can become a coordination and motivational center. Cudgels in this dimension do not work, it is not a sign of strength, but a sign of weakness.
Lukashenka is absent in social networks, where he is hopelessly losing, as Yanukovych lost here. Lukashenka is in the ranks of the police, he is on TV. But there are no his supporters on the street, there are no people on the street who watch TV, people watch social networks. Therefore, the situation is changing dramatically – it is impossible to put out the protests all over the country at once, like Yanukovych, Lukashenko pulled all his special forces to Minsk, thereby protests grow without problems in the regions.
Without a forceful scenario, it will still be impossible to change the government.
Hopefully everything will be limited to fighting and disarming the police.
I have no doubt that people who are ready to boldly go under clubs and water cannons will also boldly shed blood, and they need freedom, not the dictatorship of Putin. Ukraine should be ready to come to the rescue in the event of Russian aggression with the forces and means that we can adequately apply without harming the Ukrainian-Belarusian relations and with respect to the people of this country.
Text published with permission from the author