Russian GDP Falls 28% in April

Non-working period and oil price crash cut Russia’s economic output by $33 billion.

Parts of Russia’s economy have begun to reopen after a six-week shutdown.Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP

The Russian economy contracted by more than a quarter in April, calculations based on official government statistics have shown.

Using the first batch of official data on the damage from the coronavirus and Russia’s nationwide shutdown of the economy, Russia’s GDP in April was 28% smaller in nominal terms than in the same period last year, economists said.

The figures come from Russia’s Finance Ministry’s monthly budget update. Although the ministry does not explicitly state the extent of the slump in output, it can be calculated from the other data provided, such as government tax revenues. The numbers were first crunched by Victor Tunyov, an analyst at Agidel Asset Management, Russian news site RBC reported.

The hit amounts to a 2.4 trillion ruble ($33 billion) fall in Russian output in April 2020 compared with April 2019. Around a third of the loss can be attributed to the crash in oil prices, while two-thirds comes from the effects of Russia’s “non-working” period, Tunyov added. 

President Vladimir Putin ended Russia’s “non-working” period, instituted at the end of March, on May 12. Most regions — including Moscow and St. Petersburg — have maintained stay-at-home orders, and large parts of Russia’s service industry such as bars, restaurants, hair salons and shops remain closed. Other centers of production, including Russia’s vast oil fields and natural resource extraction sites have remained open throughout the coronavirus pandemic.

In a televised meeting of top officials Tuesday, prime minister Mikhail Mishustin said the government would propose a “national action plan for economic recovery” in the near future, while the Economy Ministry said economic activity was already beginning to pick up.

Russia is bracing for its sharpest recession in the past two decades, with GDP expected to fall by at least 10% in the second quarter, a survey of 28 economists from Moscow’s independent Higher School of Economics (HSE) published Monday showed. 



    • You would think even a KGB zombie would get it by now. International sanctions, drastic drops in oil and gas prices, numerous lost court cases, the closure of Nord Stream 2, soon to be huge hit by the JIT, sharp decline in airplane and military sales, kicked out of the G8, massive internal protests and the China virus with shutdowns and doctors jumping off buildings. But the pride of the stubborn little yellow nazi will not let him admit guilt. In his frail attempt to reassemble the USSR by force is going to break his country….again. But this time Moskovia will be drawn and quartered for good.

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