Forecast: Ukraine’s economy to see steady, slight growth until 2034
Ukraine’s economy is predicted to see steady but slight growth by 2034, accoding to the World Economic League Table forecast.
Photo by Volodymyr Petrov
Ukraine’s economy is expected to experience steady, but slight growth until 2034, according to the World Economic League Table forecast.
The outlook report, published on Dec. 26, was produced by London’s Center for Economics and Business Research. Besides making predictions, the table also ranks the world’s largest economies.
It predicts that Ukraine will shift from its current 58th place among 193 economies to 57th place by 2024. It will hold this rank throughout 2034, according to the forecast.
In 2020, however, Ukraine is expected to remain in 58th place.
The year 2019 saw the weakest global growth of gross domestic product (GDP) since the recession in 2009. However, the situation began to improve by the end of the year, and experts forecast that growth will continue in 2020.
According to the report, the Ukrainian economy increased “at a strong pace of 3.0%” in 2019. One of the reasons for this growth was that unemployment fell by 0.3% to reach 8.6%.
“This rate still, however, remains high, and a stronger labor market would help to deliver more sustained growth in the years ahead,” the report states.
The 2019 growth was also smaller than in 2018, when the economy grew by 3.3%. Nonetheless, the country’s GDP grew from $130 billion in 2018 to $150 billion last year.
Experts consider Ukraine’s progress in recent years impressive, especially given the fact that the country’s population has hardly grown after 2014. Since then, the average population growth rate has stood at 0.4% per year.
“This means that GDP per capita has risen significantly over the past five years,” the forecast states.
In addition, the Center for Economics and Business Research notes that Ukraine’s government debt as a share of GDP is “moving in the right direction” — it fell to just 57%, compared to 60.2% in 2018.
The report forecasts that, between 2020 and 2025, Ukraine’s GDP growth will reach an average of 3.1%. In 2024, GDP is expected to climb to $203 billion at current prices.
Between 2026 and 2034, the average GDP growth rate will be 3.3% and GDP will reach $359 billion at current prices by the end of the period.
According to the report, the United States will remain the leading country in the ranking through the 2020s. However, it will be outstripped by China in 2033.
After overtaking France and the United Kingdom, India is expected to beat both Germany and Japan by 2034, becoming the world’s third-largest economy.
Canada and Australia are forecast to continue growing and become the eighth and 13th largest economies, respectively, by 2034.
Poland, meanwhile, is expected to make impressive progress, entering the list of the 20 largest economies, landing in 19th place by 2031.
Korea and Indonesia are forecast to enter the top 10 largest economies over the next fifteen years.
The fastest rising countries on the table will be the Philippines, Bangladesh and Malaysia.
(C)KIYV POST 2019