Andreas Umland: Putin’s quest for instability in Ukraine

By Andreas Umland. Published Dec. 9 at 7:12 pm

Kyiv’s dilemma, at today’s Normandy Summit meeting, is that Vladimir Putin is not so much interested in the Donbas as he is in obtaining some degree of control or, at least, of instability in Ukraine, in general.

What Russia’s strategy in its Donbas policy in general and the current negotiations in Paris, in particular, comes down to is to replace the current pseudo-civil war in eastern Ukraine, orchestrated by Moscow, with a real civil war in central and western Ukraine, coming from inside Ukrainian society.

The ceasefire that President Volodymyr Zelensky manifestly aspires for may be provided by Moscow only in exchange for so far-reaching concessions by Kyiv that they will come close to a Ukrainian capitulation.

Zelensky is facing the dilemma to either continue the current fragile situation and low-intensity, but still bloody conflict, in the Donets Basin indefinitely, or to embark on a domestically risky path of succumbing to Putin’s demands.

The Kremlin’s aim is to finally trigger not only peaceful but also violent or even armed political conflict in Kyiv and in Ukrainian society at large, between hawkish and dovish citizens.

It is unclear whether Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and their teams fully comprehend the depth of many Russian nationalists’ psycho-pathological attitude towards Ukraine, and the magnitude of the Kremlin’s fear of a successful Ukrainian socioeconomic development.

Many Western diplomats and politicians may think of the current Paris talks as a sort of generic conflict resolution process.

(c) KyivPost

9 comments

  • “It is unclear whether Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and their teams fully comprehend the depth of many Russian nationalists’ psycho-pathological attitude towards Ukraine, and the magnitude of the Kremlin’s fear of a successful Ukrainian socioeconomic development.”

    I would say they know all about the Kremlin’s fear of a successful Ukraine. Russia has tried on numerous occasions over the past 3 hundred years to destroy Ukraine, steal Ukrainian history, destroy the Ukrainian language, and murder Ukrainians in their millions.

    Liked by 3 people

  • Thee Kremlin cannot return Ukraine to its orbit, Plan B apparently is to break it. That would explain Russia’s hybrid war and economic sanctions against Kyiv as well as continued fueling of the fighting in Donbas. Moscow aims to pressure, distract, and destabilize the Ukrainian government in order to hinder its efforts to adopt a full set of reforms that would spur economic growth; to frustrate Ukraine’s ability to implement the provisions of the Ukraine-EU association agreement; and to make Ukraine appear an unattractive partner for the West.

    Liked by 2 people

  • My opinion is that you may be underestimating the Ukrainian people. Russian actions over the last 5 years has backfired and has persuaded Ukraine’s politicians and much of its population of the need to anchor Ukraine solidly in European and trans-Atlantic institutions and reduce relations with Moscow. Indeed they need help with this but I believe that they have a good chance because of the willingness of the people to make sacrifices in order to achieve their goals.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Put-In has often shown that he fundamentally doesn’t understand Ukrainians. To begin with, suggesting that they are “brothers” with Muskovy, secondly by often referring to Ukraine as a territory instead of a sovereign country, third by thinking so many Ukrainians would join his invasion to overthrow “Kyiv” or build a land bridge. He understands neither laws nor free will. Thus, he doesn’t understand Ukraine. This leaves him, as Professor Umland mentions, with the choice of simply attacking and dividing. It is the vile insect leading the Kremlin that UNIFIES Ukraine.

      Liked by 2 people

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.