Chief Directorate of Ukrainian Intelligence of Defense Ministry described several possible scenarios of possible Russian invasion in the coming years, reports Radio Liberty with reference to Ivan Aparshin, the head of the Security and Defense Office of the Secretariat of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers.
The first and most dangerous scenario Ukrainian intelligence considers a full-scale war against Ukraine. If Moscow makes such a decision, it will be implemented as soon as possible, and airstrikes could be carried out at important military and industrial facilities. According to Ukrainian Intelligence, Russia has deployed about 500 aircraft and more than 300 military helicopters near the border with Ukraine. The ground invasion could follow the airstrikes: according to Kyiv, about 80 thousand Russian soldiers are stationed near the Ukrainian border and in the territories of Ukraine temporally controlled by Russia.
The Ukrainian military believes that Russia may also use non-strategic nuclear warheads. Ukrainian intelligence assumes that only in the Crimea there are five warships, six submarines and 12 fighter jets, capable of carrying missiles with nuclear warheads.
According to the second scenario, Russia will use special operations forces and illegal militia groups to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. According to the Research Manager of the Ukrainian Center for the Army Studies, Conversion, and Disarmament Valentin Badrak, in this case, sabotage and intelligence groups can begin to “destroy arsenals” and provoke technological disasters, which, in turn, can cause fear and distrust of the authorities among the population.
The third scenario assumes the start of a border conflict. The Ukrainian military considers the Russian-Ukrainian border, the “occupied territories of Ukraine,” and the border with Transnistria and Belarus to be potentially dangerous areas.
The fourth scenario assumes that Russia will start a war with neighboring countries, and Ukraine will be drawn into the conflict. Ukrainian intelligence does not think that this scenario is highly likely.
According to analysts, the scenarios of possible aggression should be considered in the development and reorganizing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.